UPDATE: Tempest Therapeutics (TPST) PT Lowered to $35 at H.C. Wainwright

H.C. Wainwright analyst Joseph Pantginis lowered the price target on Tempest Therapeutics (NASDAQ: TPST) to $35.00 (from $51.00) while maintaining a Buy rating.

The analyst comments "We believe conservatism abounds in our valuation with dry powder from multiple factors. We discuss our valuation metrics below, but we feel it is important to separately highlight our view of Tempest's valuation. As our clinical NPV valuation model below indicates, we currently value the lead two assets, TPST-1120 and TPST-1495, without inclusion of the potential TREX-1 candidate as it is currently in preclinical stages of development. Further, for the lead two assets, we only include projections for the lead indication of each asset, per our estimates. As we discussed above, we believe that there are significant layers of conservatism in our valuation based on multiple factors. First and foremost are our current projections for the lead indications of HCC and MSS CRC for TPST-1120 and TPST-1495, respectively, start with conservative projections, in our belief. To this end, our HCC projection incorporates peak penetration of 10-11% to yield our U.S. peak revenue estimate of $875 million. Our CRC projection incorporates peak penetration of 5.5-6% to yield our U.S. peak revenue estimate of $1.15 billion. We currently do not include ex-U.S. projections for these assets, and importantly, do not include other cancer indications, which we believe represent potential upside to our valuation based on visibility and data around these programs. Lastly, we do not include projections for the TREX-1 program, which is still preclinical, but has the potential to address multiple tumor indications, also providing upside potential to our valuation based on visibility around the development of the program."

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