Tesla (TSLA) Could Miss Q4 Shipment Guidance by 12% - Analyst

Bearish Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) analyst Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research said the latest available data points to a large Q4 shipment miss for the EV maker. Johnson said the data through 12/5/19 suggests global shipments of about 92.5K, versus the company's guidance of around 104.8K - a 12% miss.

Johnson commented: "After scrubbing the available data thru 12/5/19 for the USA (where TSLA's total car sales fell -46% y/y in Nov.), Europe (where port data show just 26.6K cars shipped into the EU thru 12/5/19, w/ NO + NL + SP data pointing to a lack of inventory, meaning, assuming two nearly full Glovis Carrier boats arrive in Europe in Dec., 32.6K in total cars sold in the EU in 4Q19), China (which is trending well below 10K cars in 4Q19), and other, we arrive at implied total 4Q19 shipments of 92.72K cars. Yet, with TSLA's most recent 2019 shipment guidance of "we are highly confident in exceeding 360,000 deliveries this year" - Ex. 1 - and also considering TSLA delivered 63K, 95.2K, and 97K cars globally in 1Q19, 2Q19, and 3Q19, respectively, the company is guiding to >104.8K cars delivered globally in 4Q19. Thus,should the data thru 12/5/19 prove accurate, TSLA will miss its implied shipment guidance of >104.8K cars by 11.5%, and also see a -4.4% sequential fall in cars sold, which could put a dent in the growth narrative. In what follows, we detail how we arrive at our ests. for each region referenced above."

Based on the data, Johnson now sees a heightened probability that Tesla misses its delivery guidance. With estimates as high as 150K for the quarter, he sees risk as "high".

The analyst reiterated a Sell rating and price target of $44.52 on TSLA.

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Tesla click here. For more ratings news on Tesla click here.

Shares of Tesla closed at $333.03 yesterday.

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