Survey Supports Puma Biotechnology (PBYI) Nerlynx Bull Case - Citi; PT Lowered to $151

(Updated - September 18, 2018 8:19 AM EDT)

(updated to add analyst comment)

Citi analyst Yigal Nochomovitz lowered the price target on Puma Biotechnology (NASDAQ: PBYI) to $151.00 (from $164.00) while maintaining a Buy rating.

The analyst remains positive on the company noting a 100-physician survey of US oncologists supports the long-stand bull thesis on Nerlynx which the analyst is on track to being a billion-dollar drug.

Nochomovitz comments "An appreciation for continued fundamental upside to the launch based on our survey work should limit investor concerns around a “stalled” launch that has been pressuring the stock."

According to a morning research note, the key takeaways are that 1-in-4 adjuvant Herceptin patients expect to receive Nerlynx and that the address market is nearly 5.5K high risk patients completing adjuvent Herceptin. The pace of the uptake buttresses the analyst survey and yields potential for continued share growth.

Lastly, surveyed physicians are currently prescribing the drug to roughly 35-45% of the high-risk Herceptin completers which implies material room for brand/TRx growth as nearly 3.5K high-risk patients have yet to receive the drug which should continue to drive the launch.

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