First Look at Gilead Sciences (GILD) 9883 Suggests Profile Matches Tivicay - Leerink

Leerink Partners analyst Geoffrey Porges reiterated an Outperform rating and $120 price target on Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ: GILD) after the company disclosed significant new data about GS9883, their mythical second generation HIV integrase inhibitor now in phase III trials.

Porges commented: "This compound, which is designed to forestall the share erosion Gilead has suffered to VIIV’s dolutegravir (Tivicay/Triumeq) in their HIV franchise, was presented in four posters at this week’s American Society of Microbiology (ASM) Microbe meeting in Boston. Gilead distributed the posters to analysts and investors and here we summarize the posters and their key points. This information is particularly important to our thesis about the stock, since our 2020 HIV revenue is approximately $7bn (50%) higher than sell side consensus. A key part of our sustained growth thesis through this forecast period is the introduction of the triple combination of GS9883/TAF and emtricitabine, which we expect to be Gilead’s ultimate combination. This regimen-inone should offer a very small pill size (310mg), impressive efficacy (in both treatment naïve and treatment experienced patients), excellent convenience (one pill, once daily for all patients) and a high barrier to viral resistance (with activity in patients who have failed other integrase inhibitors). To these advantages we hope we can also add excellent safety and tolerability, although these have yet to be proven, or at least presented and disclosed, by the company."

He added, "We currently forecast this regimen launching in 2018, and capturing significant share rapidly (from many of the company’s other combinations as well as competitors), growing to over $4bn in global sales by 2020 (POS adjusted) and $7bn by 2022. Any disappointment with GS9883 (now bictegravir), would materially alter our outlook and thesis, although some of the revenue would certainly be retained near term by other Gilead combinations."

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Gilead Sciences click here. For more ratings news on Gilead Sciences click here.

Shares of Gilead Sciences closed at $82.99 yesterday.

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