Insiders' Blog

J. Crew (JCG) Chief Provides Intangible Boost to Stock Value - Cramer (GPS) Dec 2, 2009 10:13AM

Jim Cramer loves J. Crew Group (NYSE: JCG), and the stock has reportedly shot up 397% since Cramer recommended it on December 1, 2008. Crame's doesn't believe that you've missed the move though, as J. Crew has room to grow.

But not immediately! Wait for a pullback, Cramer suggests. One of his favorite technical advisors suggested that JCG could move all the way up to $50 per share, a nice 12% jump from where it's at today.

The sole reason behind the potential growth seems to be company CEO Mickey Drexler, who brings a deadly combination of business and fashion knowledge to J. Crew. He recently was the CEO over at Gap, Inc. (NYSE: GPS) and turned that company around into a profit machine.

Drexler no doubt employed an inventory reduction strategy that will allow J. Crew to maintain its pricing and still be able to empty its shelves over the holiday season.

Mickey created such successful Gap spin-offs as Old Navy and Banana Republic, and contributed to J. Crew's "CrewCuts" for kids and "Madewell" for women. Both are presidential quality, as the Obama kids been seen sporting the fashionable CrewCuts wear around town.

It intangibles like this, Cramer alludes to, that made a company like JCG tough to value. He recommends to start a modest position now, and dollar cost-average your way to more shares as the price pulls back.

Ag Stocks Moving Again (POT, MOS, AGU, IPI) Dec 2, 2009 10:05AM

Ag stocks are moving sharply higher for the second straight sesson today on solid volume. While we see nothing specific today, the positive vibe from yesterday's analyst call in the sector could be behind the move.

Yesterday, Broadpoint.AmTech analyst Edlain Rodriguez made a proclamation that the "worst is over" for the sector and the negative news flow is fading.

Rodriguez noted that harvesting is nearly completed, as cooperating weather conditions have allowed farmers to make significant progress in harvesting their crops over the past few weeks. Rodriguez said "channel checks continue to indicate that as farmers complete their harvest, they appear more inclined to resume buying potash if they can salvage any Fall application."

Rodriguez raised price targets on PotashCorp (NYSE: POT), Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS), Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU) to $130, $65 and $65 from $116, $60 and $63, respectively. All are rated Buy. Intrepid Potash's (NYSE: IPI) price target was maintained a $35, also with a Buy rating.

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Microsoft (MSFT) Browser Ceding Market Share to Google (GOOG) and Mozilla Dec 2, 2009 09:43AM

A Net Applications report stated today, not to this writers disbelief, that Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) Internet Explorer is losing market share to Mozilla Firefox and Google's (NASDAQ: GOOG) Chrome.

Over the past year, IE has lost 8 percentage points, and lost 1 percentage point last month. IE's market share is now down to 63.6%.

Mozilla's Firefox looks to pounce on a 25% share of the market, up from November's share of 24.7%. Google's Chrome has made a 0.4% jump to 3.9%.

Currently, Chrome is only available for Windows-based computers. A Mac version for Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) computers should be release some time in 2010.

iPhone on Verizon? Not So Fast Says Analyst Dec 2, 2009 08:24AM

Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone on the Verizon (NYSE: VZ) network may look like the perfect match, giving the largest wireless carrier the most popular mobile device in U.S. history. However the dream match might not be in the best interest of either company according to analysts at Kaufman Bros.

The analysts believe that the future success of the iPhone does not hinge on the potential partnership with Verizon after its exclusive agreement with AT&T (NYSE: T) runs out next year. Due to conflicting interest the deal may never get done, lending credence to rumors swirling yesterday that Apple may look to the nation's fourth largest wireless carrier, T-Mobile as a future partner.

Conflicting interest between Apple and Verizon could ultimately squash any hopes of a deal getting done.

Apple runs its own app store, which is one of the key features that make the mobile device as popular as it is across various demographics. Verizon has aspirations to run its own app store in the future and may not be willing to concede this plan to lure the iPhone.

The iPhone also offers a vast media experience through its iTunes service, while Verizon uses its service, V CAST, for media function on its smart phones.

In its current agreement with AT&T, Apple gets favorable economics with an ASP of $611. The most popular smart phone developer current on the Verizon network is Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM), which gets an ASP currently of $340 from Verizon.

If both companies are not willing to give ground in negotiations, a deal between Verizon and Apple may not be able to join in 2010. Kaufman sees T-Mobile and/or Sprint (NYSE: S) as a better fit at this time, with both companies in need of a boost from the iPhone sales potential to gain market share.

Kaufman sees T-Mobile as a solid fit for Apple as the wireless network has a similar 3G network, whether that's a good thing or not, to what the iPhone currently runs on.

A pairing of the Verizon and Apple may be inevitable in the future, possibly in 2012 when Verizon rolls out its 4G network. If a deal can be struck in 2010 it would surely deal a blow to Verizon's wireless competitors. After all Luke Wilson would have nothing to boast about with AT&T's precious exclusive iPhone deal.

Shares for Apple fell just before the close on Tuesday before rebounding to a current $198.74 before the market opens. Verizon shares are at $32.34, AT&T shares are at $27.18, while Sprint is at $3.78 in pre-market hours.

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Pres. Obama's Afghanistan Exit Plan May Boost Some Defensive Stocks - CNBC Dec 1, 2009 06:01PM

In the wake of President Obama's plan to send about 30,000 more troops to Afghanistan in accelerated deployment, the question puzzling CNBC is...who will benefit?

An analyst at Jeffries and Co. believes that:

• Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC);
  
  
• Boeing (NYSE: BA);
  
  
• General Dynamic (NYSE: GD); and
  
  
• Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT)

will all see a pop. He commented that the boost would come mainly from spending for the increased training of the Afghanistan army.

An analyst from Jesup and Lamont believed that the true winners would be:

• ManTech International (NASDAQ: MANT);
  
  
• NCI (NASDAQ: NCIT);
  
  
• SAIC (NYSE: SAI); and
  
  
• CACI International (NYSE: CAI)

will all see some upside.

The analyst's believed that, although its an exit strategy, the timeline wasn't that clear.