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Jefferies Comments and Tweaks Price Target on REIT Sector

September 9, 2011 3:34 PM EDT
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Price: $48.52 --0%

Rating Summary:
    10 Buy, 14 Hold, 6 Sell

Rating Trend: = Flat

Today's Overall Ratings:
    Up: 8 | Down: 13 | New: 10
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Based on the results from Jefferies Office Market Tracker, which examines the geographic exposures of the Office REITs under coverage from both a current valuation and forecast real estate fundamental perspective, the firm notes that most office REITs are more attractive than the private market.

The firm points out that the markets of the Central Business District Office REITs like SL Green Realty (NYSE: SLG) and Boston Properties (NYSE: BXP) will post the highest forecast occupancy and rent growth through 2013. Although, macro headwinds may continue to negatively affect rent and occupancy growth expectations.

A list of the REIT companies with exposure to the strongest forecast cumulative occupancy change markets through 2013, from greatest to least is BXP with +3.6%, followed by SLG with +3.2%, Washington Real Estate (NYSE: WRE) comes next with +3.1%, with Corporate Office Properties (NYSE: OFC) following at +3.0%, and Highwoods Properties (NYSE: HIW) closing it out at +2.9%.

A list of REITs with exposure to the strongest forecast cumulative rental rate growth markets through 2013 begin with SLG at +15.7%, followed by BXP at +11.7%, then OFC with +8.1%, WRE comes next with +6.0%, and HIW trails with +1.7%.

From most to least, a list of REITs with exposure to the strongest forecast cumulative employment growth markets through 2013 is WRE with +8.7%, followed by OFC with +8.2%, then HIW with +7.7%, and BXP and SLG close it out with +7% and +4.9%.

The REITs with exposure to the lowest forecast supply growth markets through 2013 begins with HIW at +0.68%, followed by BXP with +1.16%, then SLG with +1.21%, OFC comes next with +1.54%, and WRE comes in last with +1.84%.

Jefferies currently has a Hold rating on shares of BXP with a $99 price target. The firm estimates 2011 and FFO of $4.82 and $5.10 for the company.

The firm has a Buy rating on shares of HIW and has raised its price target on the company from $34 to $36. FFO estimates for 2011 and 2012 are set at $2.53 and $2.62.

Shares of OFC currently have a Hold rating while the firm reduced its price target on the company from $25 to $23. For 2011 and 2012, Jefferies has its FFO estimates set at $1.40 and $2.18.

Jefferies increased its price target on shares on SLG from $70 to $72 and reaffirmed its Hold rating. The firm also set its 2011 and 2012 FFO estimates at $4.80 and $4.41 on the company.

The firm reiterated its Hold rating and $29 price target on shares of WRE and set its 2011 and 2012 FFO estimates at $2.01 and $2.08.


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