Barclays on 1Q11 Earnings Surprise & Preview: Expect To Beat Consensus by Wide Margin
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Barclays on 1Q11 Earnings Surprise & Preview: Expect To Beat Consensus by Wide Margin
Barclays analyst says, "We think 1Q11 earnings will be significantly higher than consensus estimates. We think the current published consensus estimates have not fully reflected the strong Brent price environment as well as the higher light/heavy oil differentials. Companies that are heavily exposed to Brent oil pricing (international and North America offshore operations) and have large refining exposure to WTI-linked crude or heavy oil will likely beat the consensus by a wide margin. For 1Q11, we expect our group of 18 closely followed major integrated oil and refining companies to earn $45.9 billion, up 35% quarter over quarter and 54% year over year."
Biggest Potential 1Q11 Upside Surprise: Chevron (NYSE: CVX), Alon USA Energy(NYSE: ALJ).
Biggest Potential 1Q11 Downside Surprises: Sunoco (NYSE: SUN).
"We raise the Integrated Oils EPS forecasts by an average of 14% in 1Q11 and 16% in 2011. For the Refiners, we lower our 1Q11 and 2011 EPS forecasts by 17%."
Barclays raises Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) (OW-rated) price target from $115 to $130 and FY11 EPS estimate from $11.70 to $13.00, but lowers FY12 from $12.80 to $12.45.
Barclays raises ConocoPhillips' (NYSE: COP) (EW-rated) from $82 to $88 and FY11 EPS estimate from $7.10 to $8.35, lowers FY12 from $9.10 to $8.75.
Raises Exxon Mobil's (NYSE: XOM) (EW-rated) price target from $90 to $95 and FY11 EPS estimate from $7.65 to $8.40.
Raises Marathon Oil's (NYSE: MRO) (EW-rated) PT from $50 to $55 and FY11 EPS estimate from $4.85 to $5.55.
Raises Murphy Oil's (NYSE: MUR) (OW-rated) price target from $78 to $85 and FY11 EPS estimate from $6.10 to $7.30 and FY12 from $7.65 to $7.90.
Barclays analyst says, "We think 1Q11 earnings will be significantly higher than consensus estimates. We think the current published consensus estimates have not fully reflected the strong Brent price environment as well as the higher light/heavy oil differentials. Companies that are heavily exposed to Brent oil pricing (international and North America offshore operations) and have large refining exposure to WTI-linked crude or heavy oil will likely beat the consensus by a wide margin. For 1Q11, we expect our group of 18 closely followed major integrated oil and refining companies to earn $45.9 billion, up 35% quarter over quarter and 54% year over year."
Biggest Potential 1Q11 Upside Surprise: Chevron (NYSE: CVX), Alon USA Energy(NYSE: ALJ).
Biggest Potential 1Q11 Downside Surprises: Sunoco (NYSE: SUN).
"We raise the Integrated Oils EPS forecasts by an average of 14% in 1Q11 and 16% in 2011. For the Refiners, we lower our 1Q11 and 2011 EPS forecasts by 17%."
Barclays raises Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) (OW-rated) price target from $115 to $130 and FY11 EPS estimate from $11.70 to $13.00, but lowers FY12 from $12.80 to $12.45.
Barclays raises ConocoPhillips' (NYSE: COP) (EW-rated) from $82 to $88 and FY11 EPS estimate from $7.10 to $8.35, lowers FY12 from $9.10 to $8.75.
Raises Exxon Mobil's (NYSE: XOM) (EW-rated) price target from $90 to $95 and FY11 EPS estimate from $7.65 to $8.40.
Raises Marathon Oil's (NYSE: MRO) (EW-rated) PT from $50 to $55 and FY11 EPS estimate from $4.85 to $5.55.
Raises Murphy Oil's (NYSE: MUR) (OW-rated) price target from $78 to $85 and FY11 EPS estimate from $6.10 to $7.30 and FY12 from $7.65 to $7.90.
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