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Analyst Boosts Q4 Amazon (AMZN) Fire Sales Expectations Following Checks

October 14, 2011 11:31 AM EDT
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Tablets continue to be a hot commodity for both consumers and companies.

Current market leader Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) has it's iPad, iPad 2, and (soon), the iPad 3.

Amazon, as announced September 28th, is bringing a new media tablet to the market in the Kindle Fire.

One analyst from Rodman & Renshaw is getting more bullish on Amazon's prospects following initial checks. The analyst lifted his forecast 25 percent for initial fourth quarter Fire sales from 4 million to 5 million.

The analyst said Apple is currently shipping about 12 million tablets per quarter, and that estimate hasn't changed.

Estimates were increased as Amazon reported record pre-orders from day one. eDataSource provides initial sales of 215,000 within the first six days, indicating a monthly rate of 1.08 million. But with holiday sales looming, that number might ramp into the holidays.

The Rodman analyst also claimed its time for a competitor to challenge Apple in the tablet realm, but that might not be the right direction. At $199, the Fire isn't designed to be the end-all tablet. While the iPad can run word processors and other complicated tasks, the Fire is more media focused, for streaming things like movies and songs. With a 7-inch display, it pales compared with Apple's nearly 10-inch display. However, the analyst might be more focused on pure numbers; not one Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) Android-based tablet has been able to even come close to Apple's numbers.

But that might change. In August, Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) cut the price on it's TouchPad to $99, spurring a frenzy of buying. The move indicates consumers are interested in a tablet device, but prices above $500 are just not going to fly.

That said, Amazon and Apple might occupy the tablet space in perfect harmony: Amazon for the Android crowd, and Apple for Applonians. Apple has been forecast to lose some market share moving forward as stronger competitors enter the market, but it will most likely retain the top-spot and majority share through at least 2015, according to some estimates.

The Rodman & Renshaw analyst cautioned that Amazon might miss his target mainly on the display side, which is Amazon's major constraining factor currently.


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