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Tesla's (TSLA) Model X Will Make Model S Look Like Chopped Liver, Morgan Stanley Says

August 6, 2014 12:08 PM

Shares of Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) are solidly higher Wednesday following bullish commentary on the company's upcoming Model X SUV.

In a note to clients today, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said the Model X has the potential to be far more successful and a much better value than the Model S. The Model X, according to Jonas, will put to rest comments that Tesla is a 'one hit wonder' with the Model S.

While Tesla is trying very hard to contain its excitement ahead of the Model X launch, it is increasingly difficult to do, the analyst said.

"We’d be disappointed if the Model X did not sweep every major Car of the Year award on offer by the automotive media," Jonas said. "Taking nothing away from the Model S as an exciting, historically important vehicle, Tesla has learned many valuable lessons since the development of its first entirely in-house designed and engineered product. Tesla has far greater financial and technical resources at its disposal to apply to the Model X line that did not exist for the Model S. The company is currently investing 4x as much in capex and 2x as much R&D the year ahead of the Model X launch as it had done the year before the Model S launch (2011). Additionally, many key suppliers who refused to work with Tesla at the time of the Model S will participate in commercializing the Model X. It is in Tesla’s interest to under-sell expectations of the Model X’s capabilities while it is still in the early stages of the global roll-out of the Model S."

The analyst said look for significant advancements in every measurable area of performance, functionality and safety/autonomy. "We expect the Model X to have a starting MSRP between 5 and 10% higher than the Model S, but will include far greater levels of equipment and features as standard, offering a ‘content-adjusted’ price that is noticeably more favorable to the customer. Like the Model S, we’re not expecting the Model X to sell on fuel savings economics at all. We’re expecting the X’s main selling point to focus on driving pleasure (acceleration, handling, AWD), cool features (upgraded infotainment system, falcon door feature, interior room and comfort) augmented by first-to-market safety features in the area of autonomous driving and 'car learning'. "

While all looks great for the Model X, Jonas notes commercial launch had been delayed by 6-9 months into 2014. "We are also surprised that Alpha and Beta prototypes have yet to be tested for what is a significantly new product, but TSLA announced last week that this will happen in a matter of days," he said.

Jonas said it possible that Model X sales can surpass Model S in global volume by the end of 2016. "In our current model, we forecast Model X volume to overtake Tesla’s flagship S in volume by 2018. Given the size of the global crossover/SUV market (particularly in China and the US), we would not rule out a faster ramp for X. We believe Tesla may be preparing for such an outcome with its target of over 100k units of global deliveries (S + X) by late 2015, a run-rate as much as 30% higher than our current forecast."

The firm maintained an Overweight rating and price target of $320 on Tesla.

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Tesla Motors click here. For more ratings news on Tesla Motors click here.

Shares of Tesla Motors closed at $238.49 yesterday.

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