Stifel Updates Ests on Tesla (TSLA) Following Q2 Results, Management Commentary
Stifel is updating its model on Tesla Motors (Nasdaq: TSLA) following Q2 results reported last week.
Analyst James Albertine made the following updates:
- We are reducing our 3Q14 EPS (non-GAAP) estimate to $0.04 from $0.39 prior relative to guidance for slight profitability (Street: $0.30), primarily driven by 8,000 deliveries (vs. guidance for 7,800 units delivered and 9,000 units produced), $876.1 mm non-GAAP automotive sales (+52% y/y vs. +77% y/y in 2Q14), $228.2 mm of Auto GP (vs. $207 mm in 2Q14) representing 29.7% automotive gross margin (ex Dev. Services) relative to 27.9% reported in 2Q14, +20% q/q growth in R&D costs to $129.3 mm (16.4% of Auto Sales) from $107.7 mm in 2Q14 and +15% q/q growth in SG&A expense to $153.9 mm (19.5% of Auto Sales) from $134.0 mm in 2Q14, and 142.4 mm diluted shares outstanding relative to 141-143 mm guidance.
- We are reducing our FY14 EPS estimate to $1.16 from $1.34 prior (Street: $1.12), primarily driven by 35,536 units delivered relative to guidance for more than 35,000 units, which anticipates a unit build rate of roughly 1,000 units per week by year-end.
- We are increasing our FY15 EPS estimate to $3.63 from $3.61 prior (Street: $3.16), primarily driven by 73,500 units delivered (57k Model S, 16.5k Model X), which anticipates a unit build rate beginning the year just over 1,000 units per week and ending the year just over 2,000 units per week, relative to management guidance for a 100k per year delivery rate by the end of FY15. As we anticipate TSLA maintains some delta between units produced and units delivered, our model may prove conservative. However, we do expect the production vs. delivery delta will contract slightly in FY15 vs. FY14 as TSLA begins filling Model X orders globally. There is also some consideration for units in transit with respect to an assumed production vs. delivery delta in the years ahead as TSLA increases its global penetration.
- We are increasing our FY16 EPS estimate to $5.19 from $5.12 prior (Street: $5.11), primarily driven by 101,000 units delivered (46.5k Model S, 54.5k Model X), which anticipates a unit build rate of roughly 2,000 units per week throughout the year. We are anticipating another jump in unit per week production in 2017 (from 2,000 units per week to 2,800 units per week) as TSLA readies for its Model 3 launch.
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Tesla Motors closed at $233.27 yesterday.
