GLJ Research Reiterates Sell Rating on Tesla (TSLA)
GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson reiterated a Sell rating and $24.86 price target on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).
The analyst comments "Tesla reports 1Q26 results tomorrow after the close, and in our view, this print is just as much about the headline numbers as it is the forward commentary. The consensus calls for 1Q26 adj. EPS of $0.35 on revenue of $22.081B and a gross margin of 17.7%. Our model sits materially below the Street across every key line: revenue of $20.442B (-$1.639B/-7.4% vs. consensus), gross margin of 16.1% (-160 bps vs. consensus), non-GAAP EPS of $0.29 (-$0.06 vs. consensus), and free cash flow of -$2.517B (-$653M worse than consensus’ -$1.864B). We also model a GAAP operating loss of ($213M) and GAAP EPS of $0.02, against consensus’ GAAP EPS of $0.25 and operating income of $823M. More importantly, our FY26 estimates sit approximately 30% below consensus on revenue ($83.4B vs. Street’s $119.5B), and we model a full-year operating loss of ($2.1B) against Street expectations of $8.9B in EBIT. The gap is not a rounding error — it reflects fundamentally different assumptions on demand elasticity, Energy margins, regulatory credits, and the pace of robotaxi monetization. We reiterate our Sell rating and $24.86 price target, derived by applying a ~25x P/E multiple (up from 10.0x prior to reflect the current euphoria that has beset the US stock market) to our 2027E adj. EPS estimate of $1.00/shr (with zero terminal value assigned to unproven autonomy or robotics segments)."
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Shares of Tesla closed at $386.42 yesterday.