Shift4 Payments (FOUR) PT Lowered to $115 at UBS
UBS analyst Tim Chiodo lowered the price target on Shift4 Payments (NYSE: FOUR) to $115.00 (from $125.00) while maintaining a Buy rating.
The analyst comments "Q2 broadly in-line with little change to standalone Shift4 FY guide: Q2 E2E volume came in slightly below Street with the company leaving the full-year guide unchanged including Global Blue (we believe Global Blue adds ~$2b of E2E volume, UBSe), suggesting 2H YoY growth deceleration from ~29% in 1H to ~22% in 2H at the mid point of the implied organic guide, potentially with some minor impacts from enterprise client implementations/ramping. While there was no single large/meaningful Enterprise win that went live in Q2, the company's backbook remains healthy at $35b+ (same as Q1) with the timing and ramp of volumes alongside cross-sell success being the largest factors that could provide upside/downside to the E2E volume guide (noting that Shift4 referenced lower Enterprise ramp in Q2 vs. Q1). The remaining portions of the guidance were largely unchanged (GRLNF, EBITDA, Cash Flow Conversion) from an ex- Global Blue basis (absent the GRLNF guide raised by $5mm, mainly owing to the ~ $3mm GRLNF beat vs. the mid-point in Q2). From a Global Blue perspective, the company is expecting $334mm of gross revenue in 2H25 ($330mm contribution adjusted for timing) or $300mm of GRLNF contribution in 2H alongside $125mm of EBITDA, split evenly between Q3 and Q4. The $334mm of gross revenue would suggest a ~17% revenue growth rate for Global Blue assuming the gross revenue is like for like with its prior reported revenue, roughly consistent with Global Blue's high-teens revenue growth over the past three quarters (although the company has noted currency headwinds to important currency pairs impacting international shopper ticket sizes). Lastly, Shift4's CFO, Nancy Disman, will be retiring at year end and replaced by board member (since 2016) Chris Cruz of Searchlight Partners."