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Internal Tesla (TSLA) Report Forecasts 4Q Output Jump and Growth Through 2023

September 30, 2022 11:31 AM

A report by Reuters Friday, citing internal plans, shows that electric vehicle company, Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) plans to push global production of its top-selling Model Y and Model 3 electric vehicles sharply higher in the fourth quarter. The forecast covers the next four consecutive quarters and begins with the objective to produce almost 495,000 Model Y and Model 3s in the fourth quarter of this year.

The company then plans to build on that growth in 2023 as newer factories in Austin and Berlin ramp production.

Tesla's production forecast, if achieved, would place the EV maker on track to meet CEO Elon Musk's goal for production in the coming quarter and bring the automaker close to the scale of German luxury automaker BMW by end 2023.

This goal comes despite persistent supply chain risks, a slowing economy and rising competition. The production plans would see Tesla blow past projected growth in the global market for autos by close to a factor of 10 in 2023 with a production increase of over 50% for the year.

Tesla is expected to announce third-quarter deliveries and output as early as Saturday. Piper Sandler projects Tesla will deliver 354,000 vehicles in the third quarter. Citi expects deliveries of 369,800 vehicles. Troy Teslike, a Tesla-watcher who tracks production and delivery data, projects sales of 343,779 Model Y compact crossovers and Model 3 sedans.

If Tesla hits or exceeds those analyst forecasts and then meets the internal forecast for the coming quarter, the company will have global sales of around 1.4 million vehicles in 2022.

Its forecast production of 1.59 million Model Y and Model 3s through the first three quarters of next year, would put it on track to end 2023 with sales of over 2.1 million EVs.

Including gas-powered car sales, that would make it larger than Volkswagen's Audi brand, and would also be just past the forecast of Wedbush Securities, who has been bullish on Tesla's prospects. Wedbush forecasts 2023 deliveries of 2 million EVs in 2023, up from 1.39 million this year.

By Michael Elkins | [email protected]


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