GoPro (GPRO) Bulls/Bears Weigh Inventory as the Holiday Approaches
Shares of GoPro (NASDAQ: GPRO) are getting wholloped again today (-7%) as analysts at Pacific Credit discussed rising unsold inventory at Best Buy. The comments echoed Best Buy's own disclosure with its quarterly results that the 'digital imaging' segment was weak. However, other analysts see the Holiday shaping up well.
In a note to clients earlier on GoPro supplier Ambarella (NASDAQ: AMBA), Pacific Crest analyst Brad Erickson said GoPro checks were "incrementally worse." They found that days of inventory spiked to nearly a month at Best Buy, with sell-through appearing relatively flat versus the past few months. "Salespeople commented that other popular holiday categories like TVs and mobile phones have started the expected holiday inflection, while action camera sales remain soft," according to the note. For context, the analyst noted that last year they saw inventory spiking on both an absolute level and days of inventory almost a month sooner, with holiday demand picking up soon thereafter, driven by interest in the then-new Hero 4 products.
While analysts at Pacific Credit are subdued, analysts at Detwiler Fenton had some comments today that may give bulls a little hope still.
Detwiler has word that the category is still selling well through the early cycle and expectations are positive for Holiday. They sense the poor Q4 guidance was more a function of their ability to plan rather than a fundamental demand shift in the market. "While the guide for Q4 was soft, we believe that there was a confluence of events that drove this. After several revs of rolling new products each year to cause an upgrade cycle, this year was not a repeat. They introduced the Session 4 (cube) in the middle of their Hero price scale, which caused some consumer conflict and confusion. They bought too many because thinking it would sell like other new products had in the past, but it didn’t. Likely some channel stuffing disrupted normal market flows to correct."
The key, says Detwiler, is that "sell-out of retail channels is still quite strong for GPRO, and they are hearing about pretty solid re-orders."
