Q1 Retail Round-Up: Are Shoppers Signaling That a Double-Dip Recession Is Not in the Cards?

With so many retailers handily beating analysts' expectations for the last quarter, investors are considering the following questions: "Is America back on track?" and "Has the recession really been reversed?"

Traders could be viewing this recent trend in several ways, including:

• the consumer is, in fact, out and about and spending freely at both high- and low-cost retailers.
  
• estimates have been revised so low following the recent slew of low-grade, synthetic earnings, that a beat should be more than expected.
  
• lastly, companies have a combination of both and after cutting costs (consisting of letting go of some workers and reducing inventories), even marginal increases in net income have added significantly to bottom-line numbers.

Let's review a few Retail results so that readers can make their own judgment:

• Williams-Sonoma (NYSE: WSM) reported Q1 non-GAAP EPS of $0.23, 11 cents better than the analyst estimate of $0.12. For Q208, the company had an EPS of $0.08, beats views by 1c. Revs for that period were also $819.6 million, compared to $717.6 million for this past quarter;
  
• Dollar Tree (Nasdaq: DLTR) reports Q1 EPS of $0.92, ex-items, 8 cents better than the analyst estimate of $0.84;
  
• Macy's, Inc. (NYSE: M) reported a Q1 EPS of $0.05, cents better than the analyst estimate of $0.04. Revenue for the quarter was $5.57 billion, which compares to the estimate of $5.54 billion;
  
• Chico's FAS (NYSE: CHS) reported a Q1 EPS of $0.20, which was even with the analyst estimate of $0.20. Pre-financial mess, the company only had an EPS of $0.04 [Q208]. Last quarter, the company reported an adjusted EPS of $0.10, topping views by 5c.
  
• GameStop (NYSE: GME) reports Q1 EPS of $0.48, 1 cent better than the analyst estimate of $0.47;
  
• Stein Mart, Inc. (Nasdaq: SMRT) reports Q1 EPS of $0.32, 9 cents better than the analyst estimate of $0.23;
  
• Bon-Ton Stores (Nasdaq: BONT) reports Q1 loss of $1.33, versus the analyst estimate of ($1.82);
  
• Perry Ellis (Nasdaq: PERY) reports Q1 EPS of $0.81, versus the analyst estimate of $0.60;
  
• Casual Male Retail Group, Inc. (Nasdaq: CMRG) reports Q1 EPS of $0.09, 3 cents better than the analyst estimate of $0.06;
  
• New York & Co (NYSE: NWY) reports Q1 loss of $0.08, inline with the analyst estimate of ($0.08);
  
• The Buckle (NYSE: BKE) reports Q1 EPS of $0.64, 3 cents better than the analyst estimate of $0.61;
  
• Children's Place (Nasdaq: PLCE) reports Q1 EPS of $1.00, 10 cents better than the analyst estimate of $0.90;
  
• Stage Stores (NYSE: SSI) reports Q1 EPS of $0.06, 1 cent better than the analyst estimate of $0.05;
  
• Sears Holdings (Nasdaq: SHLD) reports Q1 EPS of $0.16, 2 cents better than the analyst estimate of $0.14;
  
• Gymboree (Nasdaq: GYMB) reports Q1 EPS of $0.99, 2 cents better than the analyst estimate of $0.97;
  
• Hot Topic (Nasdaq: HOTT) reports Q1 loss of $0.04, even with the analyst estimate of ($0.04);
  
• BJ's Wholesale (NYSE: BJ) reports Q1 EPS of $0.49, 6 cents better than the analyst estimate of $0.43;
  
• Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) reports Q1 EPS of $0.90, 3 cents better than the analyst estimate of $0.87;
  
• TJX (NYSE: TJX) reports Q1 EPS of $0.80, 2 cents better than the analyst estimate of $0.78;
  
• Saks (NYSE: SKS) reports Q1 EPS of $0.12, ex-items, 7 cents better than the analyst estimate of $0.05;
  
• Dick's Sporting Goods (NYSE: DKS) reports Q1 EPS of $0.22, versus the analyst estimate of $0.14;
  
• Kirklands (Nasdaq: KIRK) reports Q1 adjusted EPS of $0.14, 1 cent better than the analyst estimate of $0.13;
  
• Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF) reports Q1 loss of $0.13, 1 cent better than the analyst estimate of ($0.14);
  
• Cato (Nasdaq: CATO) reports Q1 EPS of $0.92, 2 cents better than the analyst estimate of $0.90; and
  
• Ross Stores (Nasdaq: ROST) reports Q1 EPS of $1.16, 1 cent better than the analyst estimate of $1.15.

Since retailers began reporting their quarterly results, about two weeks ago, the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (NYSE: XRT) has fallen about 13%, which compares to an 11% decline in the S&P 500.

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