David Moenning's Daily State of the Markets: 12/30
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2005 - Going Down to the Wire
Good Friday morning and welcome to the very last trading session of 2005. After 251 days of trading, the question of which way 2005 will go into the books remains a question mark � well, for the DJIA anyway. Yesterday�s drop of 11 points took the year-to-date return for the Dow back to just about where it started the year. So with the time that is left in year now measured in hours, the winner of this year�s race between the bulls and bears is likely to go down to the wire.
Yesterday�s session was a microcosm of the conflict the market has encountered throughout the year. While there was some good economic news on the manufacturing front, the usual worries over crude prices, the reality that the bloom is off the housing rose, and the new issue of an inverted yield curve kept the market conflicted. As a result of the conflicting issues and the fact that about one-third of the participants (based on volume totals) are on vacation this week, stocks meandered through the day in listless fashion.
At the close, the venerable DJIA sported a return for the year of just +0.02%. While the S&P is solidly in the black with a y-t-d gain of +3.51% and the NASDAQ is up +1.96%, the public still views the Dow as the market�s main representative for �how the market is doing.� Thus, from at least one perspective, with just six and one-half hours left in 2005, the year is still on the line.
What has happened to the traditional year-end �window dressing� you ask? Although it is illegal and flatly denied by all managers, usually this week is highlighted by managers buying a few more shares of their favorite holdings, which, coupled with the low volume, tends to move prices up. However, this week the worry over oil approaching $60 again and the inversion of yield curve has kept managers from their appointed rounds.
Turning to this morning, there is no economic data to report on today, so traders will be left to their own devices in terms of direction for the session. So far things are not looking that great for the bull camp as the yield curve and declines in foreign markets are keeping things fairly tentative at the moment. Bond yields continue to attract attention with the 10-yr currently falling to the 4.35% level and stock futures are pointing south before the open (Dow -20, S&P -2.70, and NASDAQ -3.0).
So with the year on the line for the DJIA, the question of the day is will the venerable index finish in the red or in the black? This is one race that may go down to the wire.
Stocks "In Play" This Morning:
C � Wins right to purchase 85% of China�s Guangdong Development Bank
WMT � To offer health insurance plans to customers thru Sam�s Club
CHK � Barron�s reports substantial insider buying
URBN � Estimates lowered at Buckingham
CAN � Pacific Crest initiates with sector perform
Disclosure: At the time of publication Mr. Moenning and/or related companies are long the following positions: none
To see David Moenning�s Trading Record, his (Strong Buy) List, or the rank for any Top Guns Stocks, visit: http://www.AnotherWinningTrade.com/SI
Good Friday morning and welcome to the very last trading session of 2005. After 251 days of trading, the question of which way 2005 will go into the books remains a question mark � well, for the DJIA anyway. Yesterday�s drop of 11 points took the year-to-date return for the Dow back to just about where it started the year. So with the time that is left in year now measured in hours, the winner of this year�s race between the bulls and bears is likely to go down to the wire.
Yesterday�s session was a microcosm of the conflict the market has encountered throughout the year. While there was some good economic news on the manufacturing front, the usual worries over crude prices, the reality that the bloom is off the housing rose, and the new issue of an inverted yield curve kept the market conflicted. As a result of the conflicting issues and the fact that about one-third of the participants (based on volume totals) are on vacation this week, stocks meandered through the day in listless fashion.
At the close, the venerable DJIA sported a return for the year of just +0.02%. While the S&P is solidly in the black with a y-t-d gain of +3.51% and the NASDAQ is up +1.96%, the public still views the Dow as the market�s main representative for �how the market is doing.� Thus, from at least one perspective, with just six and one-half hours left in 2005, the year is still on the line.
What has happened to the traditional year-end �window dressing� you ask? Although it is illegal and flatly denied by all managers, usually this week is highlighted by managers buying a few more shares of their favorite holdings, which, coupled with the low volume, tends to move prices up. However, this week the worry over oil approaching $60 again and the inversion of yield curve has kept managers from their appointed rounds.
Turning to this morning, there is no economic data to report on today, so traders will be left to their own devices in terms of direction for the session. So far things are not looking that great for the bull camp as the yield curve and declines in foreign markets are keeping things fairly tentative at the moment. Bond yields continue to attract attention with the 10-yr currently falling to the 4.35% level and stock futures are pointing south before the open (Dow -20, S&P -2.70, and NASDAQ -3.0).
So with the year on the line for the DJIA, the question of the day is will the venerable index finish in the red or in the black? This is one race that may go down to the wire.
Stocks "In Play" This Morning:
C � Wins right to purchase 85% of China�s Guangdong Development Bank
WMT � To offer health insurance plans to customers thru Sam�s Club
CHK � Barron�s reports substantial insider buying
URBN � Estimates lowered at Buckingham
CAN � Pacific Crest initiates with sector perform
Disclosure: At the time of publication Mr. Moenning and/or related companies are long the following positions: none
To see David Moenning�s Trading Record, his (Strong Buy) List, or the rank for any Top Guns Stocks, visit: http://www.AnotherWinningTrade.com/SI
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