UBS Updates Global Auto Model on Weak Macro Data: 'Goodbye Auto Production Recovery'

UBS Research updated its global auto model as they believe falling demand will keep 2023 production flat compared to last year.

Analyst, Patrick Hummel wrote in a note that “it is overwhelmingly likely that rapidly weakening macro data have a severe negative impact on auto demand in 2023, in all three main regions. With that, the prospect of a production recovery on the back of improving chip supply after two years of bottlenecks no longer exists.”

UBS cut their global light vehicle production forecast for 2023 by ~3m to 82.6m. Consequently, UBS expects the auto market to switch from under to oversupply, with a substantial negative impact on OEM pricing power and margins.

Hummel continued in the note, “We've also updated our EV model, with lower absolute numbers for the struggling European car market but a strong growth perspective for the US (new tax credit). We forecast the global EV share to grow from 13% (2022E) to 26% (2025E). Chinese EV players will likely continue to accelerate exports, putting more pressure on legacy OEMs”

By Michael Elkins | [email protected]

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