Carnival Corp. (CCL) Outlook to be 'Significantly More Positive,' - UBS

UBS analyst Robin Farley said the firm expects a "significantly more positive outlook" for Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL) when it reports its third-quarter results.

In addition, UBS, which has a Buy rating and a $12 price target on Carnival, believes the company's third-quarter results and its fiscal 2023 outlook will be "significantly more positive than Q2 given the ramp in occupancy we expect in Q3, lower fuel cost since last guidance and the removal of testing and vaccine requirements that should drive 2023 booking levels."

"Fuel price is -26% lower since the company reported on June 24, which we estimate could add 57 cents to our '23 EPS estimate," wrote Farley. "We believe the demand unlock of lifting most testing and vaccine requirements in August will be incrementally positive to '23 bookings. Since the vaccine and testing requirements have been lifted, our channel checks indicate very strong demand for last-minute sailings."

The analyst pointed to Royal Caribbean last week, stating that overall bookings for 2022 and 2023 sailings are significantly higher than the same period in 2019.

"This color has positive read through for what CCL is likely seeing for bookings. And just today, Canada announced that all vaccine and testing requirements for travelers entering Canada have been lifted, so Alaska cruises will no longer have these restrictions," he added.

By Sam Boughedda

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