Wall Street Positive on Alibaba (BABA) Into First Print as Public Company
Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) will report its first quarterly results since coming public in September tomorrow, Tuesday, November 4th, before the market open, and analysts are mostly positive into the print.
Today, RBC Capital's Mark Mahaney previewed the quarter and believes Street estimates are reasonable. The firm is forecasting September Quarter revenue of 16.3B RMB, modestly above consensus at 16.0B RMB. Their projection for EBITDA of 7.7B RMB (47% Margin) is modestly below the Street at 8.2B RMB (52% Margin), and Adjusted EPS estimate of 2.67 RMB is slightly below the consensus estimate of 2.71 RMB.
Mahaney also expects BABA to provide December Quarter Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance. The Street is modeling 26.7B RMB in revenues (or 43% Y/Y growth), implying a slight deceleration in Y/Y growth vs. September Quarter levels. And the Street is modeling 14.1B RMB in EBITDA (or 53% Margin). "We view the Street’s Revenue and EBITDA estimates for Dec. ’14Q as reasonable overall," he said.
Key Items To Focus On, according to Mahaney: 1) Margin Trends – We are looking for Gross Margin of 73% (flat Y/Y) and Adj. EBITDA Margin of 47% in Sep. ‘14Q (down ~1,200 bps Y/Y from 59% in Sep. ‘13Q, due to deleverage across all Opex lines); 2) China Retail Desktop & Mobile Trends – We are looking for China Retail Desktop GMV of 343B RMB and segment revenue of 9.8B RMB (2.86% Desktop Revenue Take Rate) in Sep. ‘14Q – implying modest deceleration in both segment GMV and Revenue growth, on easier comps. And we are looking for China Retail Mobile GMV of 206B RMB and segment revenue of 3.1B RMB (1.51% Mobile Revenue Take Rate) in Sep. ‘14Q – implying modest deceleration in both segment GMV and Revenue growth, off of larger bases.; & 3) Taobao & Tmall Marketplace Trends – We expect Taobao GMV (366B RMB) to make up 67% of total GMV in Sep. ‘14Q – down from 68% in Jun. ‘14Q and 74% in Sep. ‘13Q, as Tmall GMV (183B RMB) growth continues to outpace Taobao GMV growth.
RBC maintained an Outperform rating and price target of $120 on BABA.
For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Alibaba click here. For more ratings news on Alibaba click here.
Shares of Alibaba are up 3.1% early Monday to $101.70 after tapping a fresh post-IPO high of $101.94 earlier.
