Tyson Foods Inc. (NYSE: TSN) reported Q2 EPS of $0.60, $0.03 worse than the analyst estimate of $0.63. Revenue for the quarter came in at $9.03 billion versus the consensus estimate of $8.85 billion.

Outlook

In fiscal 2014, we expect overall domestic protein production (chicken, beef, pork and turkey) to decrease approximately 1% from fiscal 2013 levels, mainly due to further reductions in forecasted hog supplies. Grain supplies are expected to increase in fiscal 2014, which should result in lower input costs. The following is a summary of the fiscal 2014 outlook for each of our segments, as well as an outlook on sales, capital expenditures, net interest expense, debt and liquidity and share repurchases:

• Chicken – We expect domestic chicken production to increase around 2-3% in fiscal 2014 compared to fiscal 2013. Based on current futures prices, we expect lower feed costs in fiscal 2014 compared to fiscal 2013 of approximately $500 million. Many of our sales contracts are formula based or shorter-term in nature, but there may be a lag time for price changes to take effect. Due to the relative value of chicken compared to other proteins, we believe demand will remain strong in fiscal 2014. We believe our Chicken segment should be above its normalized range of 5.0%-7.0% for fiscal 2014.
• Beef – We expect to see a reduction of industry fed cattle supplies of 3-4% in fiscal 2014 as compared to fiscal 2013. Although we generally expect adequate supplies in regions we operate our plants, there may be periods of imbalance of fed cattle supply and demand. For fiscal 2014, we believe our Beef segment's profitability will be similar to fiscal 2013, which was below its normalized range of 2.5%-4.5%.
• Pork – We expect industry hog supplies to decrease around 4-5% in fiscal 2014 compared to fiscal 2013, partially offset by increased average live weights. For fiscal 2014, we believe our Pork segment will be in its normalized range of 6.0%-8.0%.
• Prepared Foods – We expect operational improvements and pricing to offset increased raw material costs. Because many of our sales contracts are formula based or shorter-term in nature, we are typically able to offset rising input costs through increased pricing. As we continue to invest heavily in our growth platforms, we expect our Prepared Foods segment to be below its normalized range of 4.0%-6.0% for fiscal 2014.
• International – We expect our International chicken production to increase around 15% in fiscal 2014 compared to fiscal 2013. Based on current futures prices, we expect lower feed costs in fiscal 2014 compared to fiscal 2013 of approximately $40 million. Unless market conditions improve, we will incur losses for the remainder of the year; however the losses in the third and fourth quarters of fiscal 2014 should be lower than the losses sustained in the first two quarters of fiscal 2014.
• Sales – We expect fiscal 2014 sales to approximate $37 billion as we continue to execute our strategy of accelerating growth in domestic value-added chicken sales, prepared food sales and international chicken production, as well as price increases associated with rising cattle and hog costs.
• Capital Expenditures – We expect fiscal 2014 capital expenditures to be approximately $650 to $700 million.
• Net Interest Expense – We expect net interest expense will approximate $95 million for fiscal 2014.
• Debt and Liquidity – We expect total liquidity, which was $1.4 billion at March 29, 2014, to be above our goal to maintain liquidity in excess of $1.2 billion.
• Share Repurchases – We expect to continue repurchasing shares under our share repurchase program. As of March 29, 2014, 32.1 million shares remained authorized for repurchases under this program. The timing and extent to which we repurchase shares will depend upon, among other things, our working capital needs, market conditions, liquidity targets, our debt obligations and regulatory requirements.

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