Many Hope Alcoa (AA) Tops Views with Unofficial Q1 Earnings Season Kick-Off
Analysts currently see Alcoa reporting EPS of 11 cents on revenue of $5.97 billion. Numbers compare with EPS of 10 cents and revs of $6.01 billion posted in the same period last year.
Will Alcoa determine the pace of the market for the rest of the quarter? One analyst from FactSet Research thinks it could be possible.
John Butters used 10 years of data to make an assumption, tracking movement of the S&P 500 along with whether Alcoa beat or missed. Butters said that in 20 out of 40 quarters where Alcoa topped EPS estimates, the S&P 500 rose 4.4 percent from reporting date to reporting date (from when Alcoa plopped down Q1 numbers until Q2 numbers were revealed). The price of the S&P 500 rose 16 of the 20 monitored quarters.
In the 20 that missed, the S&P 500 fell about 0.9 percent, but the index fell in just 11 of the 20 quarters, Butters noted.
With the S&P 500 near all-time highs, it might be brave to say that more upside is in store on an Alcoa win. But, investors are hoping that history will repeat itself in this case.
Shares of Alcoa are up 1.5 percent Monday afternoon.