Investing.com -- Evercore kept its oil price forecasts unchanged as crude oil movement shows signs of recovery while downstream bottlenecks persist. The firm projects Dated Brent at $105 per barrel for the fourth quarter of 2026 and $80 per barrel for 2027.

The September rebound in Gulf crude flows reduced Evercore's projected inventory draw for the fourth quarter of 2026 to approximately 1.1 million barrels per day from roughly 3.5 million barrels per day. This adjustment brings the possibility of a first quarter 2027 surplus into consideration.

On-land crude stocks continue to decline as barrels build up at sea. Record freight rates have widened the gap between what producers receive and the cost of delivered crude.

The main constraint remains in downstream operations, with Gulf product exports running below half of pre-war levels. Cumulative damage to Russian refineries has made diesel supply losses more difficult to address.

Evercore stated the anticipated surplus will be necessary to rebuild inventories. The firm did not change its refining margin projections following last month's revision.