Truist sees 50% upside for First Solar as pricing supported into 2030s
Investing.com -- Truist Securities upgraded First Solar to Buy from Hold in a note to clients on Monday and raised its price target to $270 from $229, implying about 50% upside.
Analyst Christopher Souther cited a “a stronger backdrop for pricing into the 2030s and a recent valuation reset.” He raised his 2029 estimate for U.S. module average selling prices by 17%.
The upgrade follows the Section 232 trade decision, effective Dec. 4, which sets a minimum import price plus tariffs at 44 cents a watt for crystalline silicon module imports. A separate Commerce Department rule restricts foreign suppliers from stockpiling ahead of that date.
Souther said First Solar’s order book has largely set near-term pricing, with U.S. Series 7 capacity sold out through 2028. However, new bookings for the end of the decade now have upward bias from his previous expectations in the mid-30 cent range.
He also argued First Solar should remain competitive against domestic crystalline silicon manufacturing.
The analyst estimates its U.S. manufacturing cost base at about 27 cents a watt excluding tax credits, below 37 cents for domestic module production.
Truist raised its 2029 revenue forecast by 16% to $7.7 billion and EBITDA by 29% to $4.7 billion. Souther said every 2 cents of U.S. module pricing is worth $21 a share.