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RBC Capital on Mirum (MIRM): 'we could see MIRM shares up 5–10% on the EXPAND news'

October 12, 2026 9:30 AM

RBC Capital analyst Lisa Walter reiterated an Outperform rating and $155.00 price target on Mirum Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: MIRM).

The analyst comments "We note this is the 4th pivotal study (in addition to PSC, HepD, FOP) this year that has read out positively for MIRM and we like the impressive track record. We view the data positively and given the primary endpoint was hit with high statistical significance in indications with no approved therapies we think FDA likely to approve MRX for a label expansion. EXPAND delivered a clean primary endpoint win with rapid (as early as week 1) and sustained pruritus (peak reduction around ~10 weeks and maintained to week 20) reduction starting from a meaningful baseline of 2.65. We acknowledge the pbo-adjusted ItchRO delta of -0.98, trails the -1.2 to -1.4 range observed in PFIC and ALGS, however given the p-value is highly stat. sig (p=0.0004) and the fact that FDA has approved other drugs with less of a robust delta ( Lynavoy approved for PBC with ItchRo delta of -0.72), we think MRX looks approvable for the EXPAND indications (especially biliary atresia where 90% had at least a 1pt improvement). That said, we await more detail from the FDA on how broad the label may be, as some of the indications enrolled only 1-2 patients, and only 6 adults were enrolled (although we think the OLE data may help paint a clearer picture for these smaller subgroups). The safety profile holds no surprises (diarrhea, stomach pain and ALT elevation are already on the Livmarli label), and we do not view the 1 MRX-treated patient who discontinued due to ALT elevation as concerning (lab finding only, no sequelae or other symptoms). We view the TAM expansion from ~1,000 to ~2,000 US/EU patients as a helpful indicator that drug approval could drive more disease awareness/diagnosis and lead to a larger TAM and point out that the TAM appears in-line with the ALGS population (we estimate ALGS will generate >$500m in revenue at peak). Overall, we are pleased with the data and while we think most investors likely expected EXPAND to succeed, given MIRM shares have pulled back -19% since 2Q26 EPS (PSC regulatory delay announced), we could see MIRM shares up 5–10% on the EXPAND news. Reiterate Outperform."

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Mirum Pharmaceuticals click here. For more ratings news on Mirum Pharmaceuticals click here.

Shares of Mirum Pharmaceuticals closed at $86.01 yesterday.

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