TD Cowen analyst Ryan Langston lowered the price target on UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH) to $402.00 (from $430.00) while maintaining a Hold rating.

The analyst comments "3Q26E Consensus MLR and EPS Looks More Than Achievable - On 2Q26 call mgmt said 2H26 EPS should be ~1/3 of FY, with "slightly more" EPS in 3Q vs 4Q. Consensus MLR at 89.9% is ~flat yty (vs 3Q25), compared to 1H26 results -180bps vs 1H25. We see this as achievable despite the pressure on commercial risk re: IDR. On 3Q26 EPS, consensus $4.12 is ~66% of 2H26 EPS estimates, inline with the company's ~70% commentary. Optum Health consensus EBIT for 3Q26 is $299m vs ~$150m guidance, though we note 1-2Q26A EBIT outperformed consensus by ~$630m on average. Optum Heath could be a source of potential upside in 3Q26, although a portion already appears reflected in consensus.

September Conference Commentary - UNH made an investor conference appearance in mid-September, stating favorable second quarter momentum and durability of medical cost trend continued into the third quarter, supporting confidence in the underlying earnings trajectory. MA was stated to be tracking toward the upper half of the 2% to 4% target margin range, and MDCD results remain favorable with rate actions and behavioral cost trends developing as expected. In commercial, IDR remains a headwind and limiting margin expansion this year while ACA is performing better than expected.

2027 EPS Guidance Commentary Expected - Following historical precedent, UNH should provide an initial look at 2027 EPS guidance (see our chart on the following page for historical context). Over the past several years mgmt has pegged the starting point for forward year EPS inline to below then-consensus EPS estimates. We expect similar commentary on the 3Q EPS call. We note current cons EPS for 2027 is +14% yty, and we would expect management to continue this pattern of anchoring inline to below current consensus. We would expect a positive reaction to the shares if in fact management set initial 2027 EPS expectations above consensus.

Stars Released 10/08/26 - As expected, UNH Stars declined. We estimate it will now have 68% of members in 4+ Star contracts (vs 80% in 2027), we estimate a $13 PMPM headwind in 2028, or -$1.5b revenue impact."