Hormuz oil flow rebounds but diesel costs keep crude prices elevated
Investing.com - Oil prices jumped Thursday despite a recovery in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, as refining bottlenecks and shipping disruptions keep fuel costs elevated and push bond yields to multi-decade highs.
The global crude-futures benchmark rose 4.4% Thursday to $102.31 a barrel, while the 10-year Treasury yield notched its highest level in 24 years this week. Average U.S. gas prices tracked by AAA remained above $4.41 a gallon. Morgan Stanley analysts estimate Middle East crude exports have recently been just 7% below prewar levels as U.S. forces degraded Iran's ability to attack tankers.
J.P. Morgan told clients that exports of refined products such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel from the region remain around 40% below prewar levels. Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries pushed Moscow to curb diesel exports, while reduced Middle East refining capacity has forced traders to pay premiums for fuel production elsewhere. In New York, diesel futures recently fetched roughly double the price of crude, with spreads far exceeding previously recorded levels.

Shipping costs have surged as tankers take longer routes to avoid Houthi attacks or shuttle supplies just outside Hormuz for transfer to other vessels. The roughly 21-day trip by supertankers ferrying crude from the Middle East to China recently cost the equivalent of $35 a barrel, according to Argus, up from less than $7 before the war began. On Wednesday, the U.K. Maritime Trade Operations Centre reported three vessels in the Strait of Hormuz were hit with projectiles.
A Dallas Fed survey released this week showed 48% of energy executives believe at least a year will pass before the spread between diesel prices and crude costs normalizes to 2025 levels. President Trump told aides he expects to resume bombing after November's midterm elections, The Wall Street Journal reported.

