Investing.com -- Goldman Sachs analyst Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby assessed, in a note Wednesday, why Persian Gulf oil exports have returned to last year's levels, yet crude prices remain elevated because of a large risk premium.

The bank estimates Gulf exports, including so-called dark exports, recovered to 23.3 million barrels a day over the past week, in line with the 2025 average. Exports doubled during September, Grigsby noted.

That recovery came despite an attack on the Saudi East-West pipeline, which disrupted flows for nearly two weeks, and the continuing Houthi blockade of Saudi exports through the Bab al-Mandab strait.

Higher shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, including ship-to-ship transfers, are said to have driven the rebound.

“Estimated crude exports accounted for nearly 90% of the September recovery in Persian Gulf exports, reaching 19mb/d (108% of their 2025 average) over the last week,” wrote the analyst.

She added that Saudi exports more than doubled in September to 11.6 million barrels a day, while the UAE also exported above its 2025 average. Satellite data reportedly showed no seaborne crude or main refined product exports from Iran during the month.

Goldman estimates the global oil market was roughly balanced in September. It expects Brent to moderate to $85 a barrel by year-end and $80 in 2027.

Explaining why physical prices such as dated Brent remain near $120 a barrel, Goldman said the "large risk premium likely reflects 1) downside risks to supply from escalation threatening long-term oil production, 2) record low global stocks (excluding OECD commercial stocks) and hence the desire to rebuild stocks quickly given escalation risks."

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