September Harvard Caps / Harris Poll: Democrats Hold A 2-Point Lead Among Likely Voters in Midterms Horserace, With Trump Approval Hitting a Low Of 42%
NEW YORK, NY AND CAMBRDIGE, MA / ACCESS Newswire / September 30, 2026 / Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) today released the results of the September Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX.
President Donald Trump's approval rating is at 42%. His job approval is highest on immigration (48%) and fighting crime in America's cities (47%), and lowest on handling inflation (34%), the economy (37%), and managing AI (37%). This month's poll also covered public opinion on the economy, midterm issues, voter ID requirements, artificial intelligence (AI), the GOP convention, White House press pool news, the United Nations, China, and conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. Download the key results here.
"Voters are still concerned with inflation and the economy, and that's number one on their minds going into this election," said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. "While they are generally supportive of Trump's foreign policy, they want to see an end to tariffs."
OVERALL MOOD DAMPENS DUE TO CONCERNS ON THE ECONOMY
- 56% of voters say the country is on the wrong track (+4 pts., August 2026).
- 48% of voters say the U.S. economy is strong today, and 29% say their personal financial situation is improving (-3).
- The Republican Party approval rating is at 46%, while the Democratic Party approval rating is at 49% (+2), its highest level since October 2024. Congressional approval is at 32% (-2).
- Among key American politicians today, voters have a more favorable view of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (+2 net favorable) and Marco Rubio (+2), and a more unfavorable view of Chuck Schumer (-18), Tucker Carlson (-15), and Abdul El-Sayed (-13).
- Inflation remains the top personal concern for voters (45%), with immigration ticking down in salience (-3 pts., August 2026).
MOST TRUMP POLICIES CONTINUE TO SEE MAJORITY SUPPORT
- 10 out of 14 key Trump policy positions continue to see majority support. His most popular policies are lowering prescription drug prices (83% support), deporting illegal immigrants who have committed crimes (77%), and requiring proof of citizenship to vote (70%).
- Trump's least popular policy positions include placing a 15% tariff on imports from all countries (40%), eliminating mail-in voting (49%), and giving immigration officers the power to deny green cards (50%).
DEMOCRATS HOLD SLIGHT EDGE IN MIDTERMS HORSERACE WITH A STRONG MAJORITY OF VOTERS RECOGNIZING ITS IMPORTANCE
- The horserace is split 50-50 among general voters with Democrats holding a 2-pt. lead over likely midterm voters and 53% of Independents leaning Democrat.
- 42% of voters plan to vote in-person on Election Day, while 23% plan to vote in-person before, and 21% plan to vote by absentee or mail-in ballot.
- 50% of voters say their vote is decided for the midterms (+4), while 26% say they are leaning toward certain candidates but could still change their mind. 16% of voters remain undecided, including 24% of Independents.
- 83% say this midterm election is important, with 54% saying it is extremely important (+3).
- Looking to 2028, Kamala Harris (-4) and J.D. Vance (-5) remain the most favored candidates for president among voters from their respective parties.
STRONG SUPPORT FOR VOTER ID REQUIREMENTS AS A MAJORITY BELIEVE THERE IS VOTER FRAUD IN THE COUNTRY
- 59% of voters believe it is difficult for illegal immigrants to vote.
- 63% of voters believe there is voter fraud in the U.S.
- 82% of voters support voter ID requirements, and 79% support proof of citizenship requirements, including 95% of Republicans.
- 74% of voters support allowing states to cross-reference voter rolls with DHS and SSA records, and 72% support tightening voter ID requirements for the 2026 midterm elections.
ROUGHLY HALF OF VOTERS BELIEVE THE DEMOCRATIC AND REPUBLICAN PARTIES ARE BEING TAKEN OVER BY EXTREMISTS
- Voters are split 50-50 on whether the Democratic Party is being taken over by the far left, including 32% of Democrats.
- 48% believe the Republican Party is being taken over by the far right (+3), including 37% of Republicans.
- 56% of voters view the Republican Party as the more extreme party.
VOTERS SEE TARIFFS AS MAIN CAUSE OF INFLATION
- 53% of voters say the economy is worse today than under Biden (+3). 60% attribute the state of the current economy to Trump's policies (Republicans: 43%; Democrats: 76%; Independents: 62%).
- 57% of voters say Trump is more responsible for recent inflation rather than Biden. Voters are split 50-50 on whether it is true that inflation was 8% under Biden and 3% under Trump.
- Voters believe the principal causes of inflation today are Trump's tariffs (33%), government overspending and deficits (24%), and the Mideast conflict (23%).
- 37% of voters say ending Trump's tariffs is the best way to reduce inflation.
- Voters favor decreasing taxes (58%), decreasing government spending (64%), and decreasing interest rates (56%), with majority support for all three policies across political parties.
- 58% of voters believe at least a quarter of federal programs are wasted through fraud.
MOST VOTERS HAVE HEARD OF TRUMP'S $5,000 PROPOSAL BUT SAY IT MAKES NO DIFFERENCE IN THEIR MIDTERMS VOTE
- 44% of voters have seen, heard, or read about the Republican midterm convention.
- 36% of voters say the convention was effective at making the case for the party in the upcoming midterm elections, including 53% of those who heard about it.
- Voters say immigration and border security (30%), inflation (20%), and the economy and jobs (19%) were the top themes from the convention, though 28% were unsure.
- 71% of voters have heard of Trump's proposal to give every American adult a $5,000 payment if Republicans retain control of Congress in the upcoming elections. 57% support the proposal.
- 69% of voters believe the $5,000 proposal is intended to encourage voters to vote Republican in the midterms rather than a serious policy Trump intends to enact.
- 44% of voters, a plurality, say the $5,000 proposal makes no difference on their vote choice.
VOTERS ARE AGAINST THE WHITE HOUSE PRESS POOL BAN, WITH A MAJORITY CALLING FOR COURTS TO OVERTURN IT
- 56% of voters say media coverage of Trump is fair (Republicans: 42%; Democrats: 73%; Independents: 54%).
- 56% of voters say Trump generally undermines freedom of the press.
- 71% of voters have seen, heard, or read about Trump banning CNN, MS NOW, and Politico from the White House. 60% say the removal of the three outlets from the White House press pool was the wrong decision.
- 56% of voters view the ban as a punishment for negative coverage, and 37%, a plurality, say it makes coverage of Trump and the White House less fair.
- 60% of voters say the ban is an attack on freedom of the press rather than a legitimate use of presidential authority. 62% say White House press pool selections should be decided independently of the president.
- 62% of voters say the ban sets a dangerous precedent, and 60% say the courts should overturn the ban.
A STRONG MAJORITY OF VOTERS WANT A BIPARTISAN GOVERNMENT AGENCY TO REGULATE AI
- 58% of voters use AI personally. Among voters using AI, 58% say they use it daily (Republicans: 60%; Democrats: 56%; Independents: 46%)
- 55% of voters say AI mostly helps society today, and 49% view it as one of the greatest innovations of our time.
- 55% of voters believe AI will increase economic growth and productivity, but 60% expect AI to create tens of millions of unemployed people.
- 66% of voters support slowing AI development to account for possible risks. 58% say there should be more AI regulations.
- 74% of voters support creating a bipartisan government agency to regulate AI, and 66% favor such an agency over the U.S.-China competition.
- 53% of voters oppose banning data-center construction in their state.
- 53% of voters believe recent calls by major AI companies to slow down AI development is a signal of willingness to cooperate with the federal government on regulation.
XI'S STATE VISIT VIEWED AS THE RIGHT DECISION, WITH A MAJORITY SUPPORTING THE EXTENSION OF THE U.S.-CHINA TRADE AGREEMENT AND COOPERATION ON AI
- 55% of voters have seen, read, or heard about the state visit of President Xi Jinping to the U.S. 63% say it was the right decision.
- 73% of voters say Trump and Xi's extension of their trade agreement, which keeps tariffs lower for now, is a good deal for the U.S. 63% believe the U.S. got the better end of the visit.
- 56% of voters say the U.S. should continue to support Taiwan's independence.
- 54% of voters say Trump withholding approval for a $14 billion weapons package for Taiwan while negotiating with China is a smart strategy.
- 57% of voters say it is a good idea for the U.S. and China to cooperate on AI, including a majority across political parties.
- 63% of voters say Xi's state visit was worth it to keep the peace between the U.S. and China, including a majority across political parties.
- 46% of voters, a plurality, think Trump is about right on China, with 38% saying he is not tough enough, and 16% saying he is too tough.
VOTERS BELIEVE U.S. OBJECTIVES IN IRAN HAVE NOT BEEN ACHIEVED YET AND SUPPORT RENEWED FORCE IF IRAN CONTINUES TO REFUSE COOPERATION
- 63% of voters say the U.S. has not achieved its objectives in the conflict with Iran.
- 67% of voters say Iran should not be allowed to control the Strait of Hormuz. 69% say the U.S. should resume the use of force if Iran does not give up control, including a majority across political parties.
- 77% of voters say that keeping the Strait of Hormuz open to international shipping is an important national security interest for the U.S.
- 66% of voters say that Iran looks like it is becoming increasingly defiant to a deal.
- 59% of voters believe Trump would rather make a fair deal with Iran than go back to war. 47% approve of Trump's handling of the Iran conflict so far.
- 41% of voters, a plurality, say Trump's handling of the war in Iran makes them more likely to vote Democrat in the upcoming midterms. 32% say it makes them more likely to vote Republican, and 27% say it has no effect.
VOTERS WANT UN REFORMS AS HALF BELIEVE IT IS NO LONGER USEFUL
- 51% of voters say the United Nations (UN) is no longer a helpful organization.
- 51% of voters say Iran should not be put on a UN Human Rights Commission.
- 58% say that the President of Iran should have been allowed to speak at the UN, including a majority across political parties and age groups. 57% say the UN focuses equally and fairly on Iran's actions - such as the killings of its own people.
- 58% of voters believe that UN organizations in Gaza were infiltrated by terrorists, including a majority across political parties.
- 62% of voters are in favor of reforming the UN rather than ending it completely.
- 48% of voters say they would be less likely to vote for a politician who called for the complete destruction of Israel, including a plurality across political parties, compared to 26% of voters who say they would be more likely to vote for such a politician.
MAJORITY SUPPORT FOR ISRAEL OVER HAMAS CONTINUES
- 70% of voters support Israel over Hamas.
- 74% of voters say that there are terrorist groups on Israel's borders, including Hamas and Hezbollah. 41%, a plurality, say the groups are trying to destroy Israel.
- 70% of voters say Hezbollah should be required to disarm as part of the long-term peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon.
- 74% of voters say Israel has a right to exist as the Jewish homeland, including a majority across political parties and age groups.
VOTERS PRIORITIZE SECURING DURABLE PEACE IN UKRAINE NO MATTER HOW LONG IT TAKES AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT U.S. INVOLVEMENT
- 61% of voters believe Russian President Vladimir Putin is playing games with the U.S. and the West. 37% say the same of Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
- 36% of voters, a plurality, think neither Russia nor Ukraine has an upper hand in the conflict.
- 52% of voters say Ukraine needs to make territorial concessions to Russia to end the war. 58% of voters say Ukraine should receive direct security guarantees from the U.S. if it does so.
- 63% of voters say Trump should continue to provide weaponry to Ukraine and impose economic sanctions on Russia if it refuses to negotiate.
- 68% of voters say securing durable peace and preventing a future attack, regardless of how much time it takes, should be the top priority for Ukraine and its partners.
- 45% of voters believe Trump's efforts to broker peace between Ukraine and Russia will lead to a lasting and sustainable settlement. 48% approve of Trump's handling of the war in Ukraine so far.
- 39% of voters say Trump's handling of the war in Ukraine makes them more likely to vote Democrat in the upcoming midterms. 29% say it makes them more likely to vote Republican, and 32% say it has no effect.
The September Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted online within the United States on September 26-28, 2026, among 2,200 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX.
About The Harris Poll & HarrisX
The Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and earning organic media through public relations research. One of the longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963, and is now part of Stagwell, the challenger holding company built to transform marketing.
HarrisX is a technology-driven market research and data analytics company that conducts multi-method research in the U.S. and over 40 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs and philanthropic organizations. HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
About the Harvard Center for American Political Studies
The Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) is committed to and fosters the interdisciplinary study of U.S. politics. Governed by a group of political scientists, sociologists, historians, and economists within the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University, CAPS drives discussion, research, public outreach, and pedagogy about all aspects of U.S. politics. CAPS encourages cutting-edge research using a variety of methodologies, including historical analysis, social surveys, and formal mathematical modeling, and it often cooperates with other Harvard centers to support research training and encourage cross-national research about the United States in comparative and global contexts. More information at https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/.
Contact:
Carrie Hsu
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SOURCE: Stagwell
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