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PCE data ahead; Trump reportedly mulls diesel export ban - what’s moving markets

September 30, 2026 7:12 AM

Investing.com - Futures linked to the main U.S. stock indices point up, as investors await the release of key inflation data closely watched by the Federal Reserve. The personal consumption expenditures price index is anticipated to show sticky price pressures in August, likely depriving the Fed of immediate evidence against another interest rate hike at the central bank’s October meeting. Elsewhere, Brent crude steadies amid hopes for a rebound in Saudi supply flows, while the White House reportedly mulls over a diesel export ban.

1. Futures tick higher

U.S. stock index futures edged higher on Wednesday. By 03:18 ET (07:18 GMT), the Dow futures contract had risen by 247 points, or 0.5%, S&P 500 futures had gained 21 points, or 0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had increased by 52 points, or 0.2%.

The main averages on Wall Street declined modestly in the prior session. Pressure was exerted by a selloff in U.S. bond yields, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield hitting a new 2007 high and the longer-dated 30-year rate touching levels last seen in 2002.

However, New York Fed President John Williams offered some relief to markets when he suggested that while the central bank may need to tighten rates again, there was "no need for urgency" to move soon after the Fed’s hike earlier this month. This was interpreted in some corners as a signal that Fed may skip another rate bump in October, analysts at Vital Knowledge said in a note.

Resilient AI enthusiasm also gave some support to stocks, along with a small slate of upbeat consumer-linked earnings, the analysts added.

Investors will have the chance to parse through quarterly figures from semiconductor group Micron after the close, which could offer insights into the outlook for soaring memory chip demand sparked by AI.

2. U.S. PCE data

One of the main questions of the day may revolve around the trajectory for inflation -- and how the Fed will calibrate policy over the coming months to address price gains.

Driving the debate will be the personal consumption expenditures price index, a gauge of inflation that is often preferred by Fed policymakers. The core measure for August, stripping out food and fuel, is seen accelerating slightly to 0.3% from 0.2% month-on-month, while the overall reading is tipped to increase to 0.4% from 0.2%.

Year-on-year, PCE is projected to stand at 3.3% and 3.7% on a core and overall basis, respectively. This would match July’s pace, but remain well above the Fed’s 2% target level.

3. Brent crude stabilizes

Oil prices were largely steady after falling sharply in the previous session, as signs of recovering Middle East exports offset some concerns over the continuing disruption to shipments out of the region.

As of 03:04 ET, benchmark Brent crude futures expiring in November had ticked up 0.3% to $102.87 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 0.2% to $89.24 per barrel.

On Tuesday, Brent settled down by 2.6%, while WTI dropped 3.5%. The latest pressure on prices came amid signs that major producer Saudi Arabia was resuming crude loadings at its Red Sea port of Yanbu after restarting operations at a key east-west pipeline traversing the width of the kingdom.

The recovery has helped reduce some of the immediate supply risk caused by the Iran war.

4. White House holding talks on diesel export ban - FT

U.S. President Donald Trump is considering a range of measures, including a possible diesel export ban, to curb surging domestic fuel prices as a worsening energy crisis raises political pressure on his administration, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday.

Administration officials have discussed restricting international diesel sales and have briefed allies, including Britain, about possible supply disruptions, the FT reported, citing people familiar with the discussions.

A White House official reportedly said Trump was evaluating options to lower fuel prices but had made no decision on exports.

The debate has pitted Republican lawmakers from farming states against oil companies, with agricultural groups warning that high diesel prices could hurt farmers and industry ahead of the midterm elections. U.S. diesel prices reached $6.53 a gallon last week, more than 70% above their prewar level, the FT reported.

5. China factory activity grows at fastest pace in 5 months

China’s manufacturing sector strengthened in September, with a private-sector survey showing activity expanding at its fastest pace in five months, while official data also pointed to a modest improvement in factory and services activity.

The RatingDog Manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 52.1 in September from 51.5 in August, beating expectations of 51.7. The reading stayed above the 50 mark, which separates growth from contraction, for a 10th straight month and was the highest since April.

A separate tracker of services sector PMI rose to 51.6 from 51.4, exceeding forecasts of 51.3.

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