Investing.com -- Persian Gulf oil exports have returned to their 2025 average levels, reaching 23.3 million barrels per day over the past week, according to Goldman Sachs estimates. The recovery follows a doubling of exports in September, driven by increased shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, including ship-to-ship transfers.

The export recovery occurred despite an attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline that disrupted oil flows to Yanbu for nearly two weeks. The ongoing Houthi blockade of Saudi exports via Bab-al-Mandab also continues to affect shipments.

Crude oil exports accounted for nearly 90% of the September recovery in Persian Gulf exports, reaching 19 million barrels per day, or 108% of their 2025 average, over the past week. Exports of refined products and liquefied petroleum gas also increased, but shipments of main products including diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel remain at 50% of their 2025 average.

Goldman Sachs attributed the slower recovery in refined products to two factors. Refinery outages in the Middle East remain 2.0 million barrels per day above seasonal norms, while crude production facilities have largely avoided attacks. Additionally, refined products are more flammable than crude oil, creating greater physical risks for tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz.

Saudi Arabia's estimated exports more than doubled in September, surpassing their 2025 average to reach 11.6 million barrels per day over the past week. The increase followed the redirection of Red Sea exports to eastern ports and a rise in estimated dark transits. UAE exports also stand above their 2025 average. Satellite data show no seaborne exports of crude or main refined products from Iran in September.

Goldman Sachs estimates the global oil market is roughly balanced in September, with visible global inventories remaining broadly flat. OECD commercial oil stocks are in line with late February 2026 levels. The bank maintains its base case for Brent prices to moderate to $85 per barrel by year-end and to $80 in 2027.