Goldman Sachs sees bond markets as speed limiter for stocks
Investing.com -- US stocks traded lower Friday and remained flat for the week as of 11:15 AM, with the S&P 500 showing no change as investors processed three major data releases: a declining ISM Manufacturing Index, quarterly earnings from AVGO, and a strong payrolls report.
The final week of summer before Labor Day saw light trading activity as market participants took time off before returning after the holiday. Bond markets showed more stress than equities, with 10-year Treasury yields continuing to rise steadily.
Goldman Sachs analyst Christian Mueller-Glissmann said in a note this week that further gains in stocks will likely require lower interest rates rather than stronger economic growth. The firm maintains an overweight position on equities for 12 months but recommends a more defensive approach in the near term. Longer-dated bonds face pressure from fiscal concerns, competition for capital from AI investment, and persistent inflation, which limits central banks' ability to cut rates.
The Federal Reserve's next meeting is scheduled for September 15-16, with a policy statement expected on the afternoon of September 16, just seven trading sessions away.
The ISM Manufacturing Index fell one point to 54.6 in the latest survey, with declines in new orders, production and employment. Regional manufacturing surveys during August performed better, pushing Goldman Sachs' manufacturing survey tracker to its highest level since April 2022.
SNOW reported revenue 5% above expectations with margins 270 basis points better than forecast. AVGO reported results in line with or better than expectations for the July quarter but issued guidance for its fiscal fourth quarter ending in October that fell slightly below analyst estimates.
August non-farm payrolls rose by 162,000, exceeding expectations, with upward revisions for both July and June. The three-month average of payroll growth now stands at 71,000, compared to 20,000 before Friday's report. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.14%, while wage growth decelerated to 2.8% on an annualized basis.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said this week that recent data suggest signs of disinflation are finally appearing. He indicated that if this trend continues in data released over the next two weeks, he would support keeping the federal funds rate at its current level.
