Investing.com -- Morgan Stanley analyzed production data from approximately 4,000 oil and gas fields to assess the growth outlook for European energy majors through 2030.

The analysis shows aggregate production growth for the sector improved to 2.9% annually for 2025-2030, up from 1.2% in the previous year's forecast. Rolling four-year forward production increased 8.3%.

Eni emerged with the strongest production runway among the companies studied, with projected growth of 4.5% through 2030, with further increases expected through 2034. Equinor faces the largest challenges in production growth among the group.

Morgan Stanley upgraded Shell to Overweight and designated it as a Top Pick, with an expected total shareholder return of 15%. The firm anticipates significant dividend per share acceleration following recent business improvements.

The firm also maintains an Overweight rating on BP, citing expectations for faster net debt reduction than the company's stated targets, attractive valuation, and multiple potential catalysts.

The research used bottom-up data from multiple data consultants to map the production growth outlook across the European major oil companies.