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Global steel output edges lower as China decline offsets growth, Morgan Stanley comments

August 24, 2026 5:52 AM

Investing.com -- Global crude steel production fell 0.3% year-over-year in July and remained 0.6% lower year-to-date, according to Morgan Stanley.

The decline was driven entirely by China, where output dropped 3.6% year-over-year and 3.1% year-to-date. Production outside China rose 3.4% year-over-year and 2.4% year-to-date.

Among major producers, India increased output by 1.9% year-over-year and 6.1% year-to-date. The US grew 4.4% year-over-year and 6.0% year-to-date, while Turkey expanded 7.0% year-over-year and 7.9% year-to-date. South Korea's production rose 6.4% year-over-year and 2.7% year-to-date.

Russia's output rebounded 3.3% year-over-year but remained 6.1% lower year-to-date. Japan and Brazil posted minimal growth at 0.4% and 0.1% year-over-year respectively.

The China Iron and Steel Association's August month-to-date survey indicates a further 4.9% year-over-year contraction in Chinese mill output. Chinese steel exports are running at an annualized rate of approximately 116 million tons as of July.

In Europe, EU27 crude steel output increased 3.8% year-over-year in July, bringing year-to-date growth to 0.4%. Including the UK, output rose 3.5% year-over-year and was flat year-to-date.

Germany led the improvement with 3.0% year-over-year growth and 8.1% year-to-date growth. Italy's output rose 4.2% year-over-year and 3.6% year-to-date.

Finland, Sweden and Austria recorded increases of 13.0%, 10.1% and 3.3% year-over-year respectively. France rebounded 12.5% year-over-year but remained 1.3% lower year-to-date.

Spain, the Netherlands, Poland and the UK all remained in year-to-date contraction, with declines of 13.8%, 5.3%, 6.1% and 18.0% respectively.

EU hot-rolled coil spreads have risen to $464 per ton versus a long-run average of approximately $320 per ton.

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