e-commerce stocks split as Rosenblatt favors Etsy, eBay; Chewy rated neutral
Investing.com -- Rosenblatt Securities initiated coverage of three e-commerce companies on Wednesday, taking a bullish view on Etsy and eBay while adopting a more cautious stance on Chewy as investors weigh improving execution against slower underlying market growth.
The brokerage initiated Etsy with a Buy rating and a $95 price target, saying the marketplace has reached an inflection point after four consecutive quarters of improving gross merchandise sales. Rosenblatt said the sale of Depop for $1.4 billion has sharpened management's focus on Etsy's higher-margin core business, while adjusted EBITDA margin reached 29.2% in the first half of 2026. The company also announced a $2 billion share repurchase.
Rosenblatt expects Etsy's 2026 marketplace GMS to rise 5.5% to $11 billion, with revenue of $2.8 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $840 million. It said more than 100 million lapsed buyers provide an opportunity for reactivation, while integrations with ChatGPT and Google's Universal Commerce Protocol could strengthen AI-led product discovery.
The brokerage also initiated eBay with a Buy rating and a $120 price target, citing a sharp acceleration in its turnaround. eBay's second-quarter GMV rose 15% year over year, while focus categories, consumer-to-consumer sales and recommerce accounted for about 70% of GMV and each grew more than 20%. Focus categories alone grew 26%.
Rosenblatt expects eBay's advertising business to provide another source of high-margin growth, with first-party ads up 25% in the second quarter and total advertising reaching 2.7% of GMV. The brokerage also highlighted AI-driven listing tools, eBay Live and the $1.4 billion acquisition of Depop as additional growth drivers.
For 2026, Rosenblatt forecasts eBay GMV of $90.1 billion, up 13.2%, revenue of $12.5 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $6.18, up 12%. It expects non-GAAP EPS to grow at a 17% compound annual rate over the next three years.
Chewy received a Neutral rating with a $25 price target. Rosenblatt described the company as a high-quality operator that continues to gain share as pet spending shifts online, but said its valuation already reflects improving execution and leaves limited upside to core-business estimates.
Autoship, which accounted for 84.4% of sales in the first quarter, provides recurring revenue and supports customer retention, while Vet Care, equine health and sponsored advertising offer potential higher-margin growth. Rosenblatt expects adjusted EBITDA margin to rise from 6.7% in 2026 to about 7.9% in 2028, with AI-driven logistics savings of more than $50 million annually by 2027.
