Wells Fargo sees dollar store earnings ahead with varied outlooks
Investing.com -- Wells Fargo has issued its outlook for upcoming dollar store earnings reports, projecting beat-and-raise scenarios for several retailers while maintaining different stances across the sector.
The firm expects Dollar Tree (NASDAQ: DLTR), Five Below (NASDAQ: FIVE), and Dollar General (NYSE: DG) to benefit from same-store sales growth, tariff developments, and company-specific factors, though it noted that investor expectations present challenges.
For Dollar Tree, Wells Fargo models second-quarter earnings per share of $1.15 at the high end of guidance, based on 3.3% same-store sales growth and gross profit margin expansion. The firm anticipates a full-year guidance increase supported by easier traffic comparisons, lower second-half tariff rates, and accelerated share buybacks. Wells Fargo raised its price target on Dollar Tree to $155 from $145.
Five Below is projected to deliver second-quarter earnings per share above $1.55, compared to guidance of $1.17 to $1.29, with same-store sales beating the 7% to 9% guidance range. The firm suggested that a full-year raise would likely still leave room for upside, particularly with potential second-half margin benefits from lower year-over-year tariff rates. Wells Fargo indicated it would view any post-earnings weakness as a buying opportunity.
For Dollar General, Wells Fargo expects comparable sales to accelerate in the second quarter, with estimates around 3% and a potential full-year guidance raise. The firm said it would reduce any strength in shares following the report, citing increasing grocery investment, tougher margin expansion prospects, and more modest delivery benefits going into 2027.
Ollie's Bargain Outlet (NASDAQ: OLLI) faces a more challenging outlook, with Wells Fargo lowering its second-quarter estimate to $1.04 on negative 2% same-store sales. The firm reduced its full-year estimates to $4.35 for fiscal 2026 and $4.90 for fiscal 2027, and cut its price target to $100 from $115.
