Elon Musk issues ominous warning as SpaceX short interest hits danger zone
Elon Musk has never been one to shy away from a battle with short sellers, and the stage is now set for a historic showdown over SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX). Following recent reports of a massive spike in bearish bets ahead of the company’s first earnings report as a public company, the billionaire CEO took to X to deliver a stark message:
"I try to warn them, but they just double down …" — Elon Musk
The brief but potent response echoes Musk’s long history of battling—and ultimately crushing—short sellers during Tesla’s turbulent early years. With SpaceX slated to report its highly anticipated quarterly results tonight, August 4, after the closing bell, Wall Street is bracing for massive volatility.
By the Numbers: A Squeeze in the Making?
The catalyst for Musk’s response is alarming data from S3 Partners highlighting how crowded the short trade has become since SpaceX’s June IPO. Bears have piled in aggressively, creating a technical setup that is highly vulnerable to a short squeeze:
| Metric | Status | Implication |
| Short Interest | ~34% of Float | Extreme bearish concentration (anything above 10% is generally high). |
| Shares on Loan | 95% of Available Supply | The market has effectively exhausted the supply of borrowable shares. |
| Borrowing Cost | Skyrocketing | With 95% utilization, bears are paying a massive premium to maintain their positions. |
This means that if SpaceX reports positive news tonight, the resulting scramble by short sellers to buy back shares and cover their positions could send the stock soaring.
Why Are Bears Betting Against SPCX?
Despite the immense risks of betting against a Musk-led enterprise, short sellers have steadily added to their positions as the stock has trended downward from its post-IPO highs. Market analysts point to several factors driving the bearish thesis:
While SpaceX generates impressive revenue—an estimated $19 billion over the trailing 12 months—bears argue its massive market capitalization of roughly $1.6 trillion leaves no room for error.
Massive ongoing investments into Starship development and launch infrastructure may be weighing heavily on short-term profitability.
Lock-up restrictions are expected to begin expiring soon after tonight’s earnings report, which could flood the market with insider shares for the first time.
The Bottom Line
The battle lines are drawn. On one side, highly convicted short sellers have tied up 95% of the borrowable float, betting that SpaceX’s first public earnings will disappoint. On the other side is Elon Musk, who has historically made a sport out of squeezing those who bet against his companies.
When the numbers drop tonight, one side is going to feel the burn.