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TD Cowen sees Big Food losing share to premium, private brands

August 4, 2026 7:49 AM

Investing.com -- TD Cowen released a report Tuesday examining whether slowdowns in Big Food and household and personal care companies stem from category headwinds or weak brands. The firm's tracking data indicates that Big Food categories have held up fairly well to external factors like GLP-1 drugs, MAHA, and SNAP cuts. Big Food continues to lose market share to higher quality, premium brands and private label.

The firm identified Hershey as having opportunity for improvement. Hershey's 3.7% growth year-to-date falls below its category pace of 4.8%. TD Cowen believes the company's competitiveness will improve as it deploys commodity deflation to fully execute merchandising and innovation plans.

McCormick's 0.2% growth year-to-date trails its category growth of 3.2%. Market share losses have persisted for three years. According to TD Cowen's July 10 report, the company can quickly address 29% of its portfolio with interventions to improve market share, but 35% will take longer due to more complex issues like recipe mixes.

Smucker derives 54% of sales from categories with strong growth where it has kept pace or exceeded the average. Coffee has proven more resilient to higher pricing than expected and Uncrustables continues to grow household penetration. TD Cowen believes investors would give the stock more credit for above-peer growth if the company sold its declining Hostess business.

Clorox retail sales grew 0.1% year-to-date and 0.5% on a three-year compound annual growth rate basis. TD Cowen's tracking data indicates a higher weighted average category growth rate of 2.7% year-to-date than management's estimate of 1.0%.

TD Cowen estimates that 53% of Conagra Brands sales comes from weak categories where the company loses market share. The firm expressed concern that new CEO John Brase's decision to raise prices on frozen dinners and entrees to boost margins will worsen volume declines and share losses.

Kraft Heinz's exposure to commoditized categories and antiquated brands has resulted in nearly the weakest company and category growth rate on both a 3.5 year and year-to-date basis. TD Cowen estimates that 53% of sales comes from weak categories where the company loses market share.

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