Deutsche Bank raises S&P 500 earnings estimates on the back of the solid Q2 beats
Investing.com -- Deutsche Bank said in a note Monday that it has raised its S&P 500 earnings estimates for 2026 and 2027, pointing to a broad-based acceleration in second-quarter results that has beaten a record-high bar.
The bank’s chief strategist Binky Chadha said that despite the bottom-up consensus looking for 26% growth coming into the season, earnings are "beating strongly and robustly."
The share of companies beating, at 87%, is a record high, while the aggregate beat of 7% remains strong, driven by both sales and margins.
Unusually, he noted, analysts have continued to upgrade forward earnings for the second half of 2026 and 2027, in contrast to typical cuts at this stage.
The firm said S&P 500 earnings growth is on track to accelerate sharply from 25% in the first quarter to 33% in the second, "one of the highest ever outside of recoveries from recessions." Growth is being driven by sales expansion at a 25-year high and margins rising to a new record of 15.7%.
Deutsche Bank stressed the breadth of the improvement, with all 11 sectors on track for positive growth and eight in double digits. It noted the contribution from megacap growth and tech has fallen "from 90% a year ago to 57%," leaving AI beneficiaries and the rest of the market almost even.
On the back of the beats, a recent pickup in PMIs and continued outsized tech growth, Deutsche Bank raised its 2026 EPS forecast to $358 from $342, and its 2027 estimate to $420 from $390, implying growth of 28% and 17%, respectively.
