Citizens analyst Jordan Bender lowered the price target on Churchill Downs (NASDAQ: CHDN) to $137.00 (from $149.00) while maintaining a Market Outperform rating.

The analyst commented, "The stock has now re-rated to 8x our 2027E EBITDA estimate, compared to its long-term average of 12.5x, as growth has slowed across several areas of the business. We have lowered our valuation multiples to reflect slower growth and potential risks ahead, including Bally’s Chicago opening and Virginia iGaming, but we remain constructive on the stock. Excluding gaming, EBITDA margins are nearly 1k basis points above the broader gaming sector, and we expect the company’s assets to continue generating significant cash flow over the coming years, and would not justify it trading near gaming comps. Our 15x EBITDA multiple on the track is the lowest multiple we have used covering the company and appropriately reflects a trough valuation. If the company can return this asset to mid-to-high single-digit EBITDA CAGR, we see meaningful upside to our price target. In addition, the sale of the gaming business would provide greater financial flexibility, with leverage expected to decline following debt reduction, and we anticipate the company will repurchase a significant amount of shares at current levels (14% discount FCF yield). We reiterate our Market Outperform rating and lower our price target to $137 from $149. Our price target is based on 10.7x 2027E EBITDA (down from 11.5x) and 11.3x 2027E FCF (down from 13.3x). We are adjusting our 2026E/2027E EBITDA estimates to $1,257M/$1,267M from $1,243M/$1,250M. "