Investing.com -- Macquarie analysts said state-owned refiners in China may begin accessing commercial oil reserves from the third quarter of 2026, following visits to supply chain companies and policy experts in Beijing and Shenzhen.

The firm said no commercial reserves were released in the first half of 2026, as tighter export controls and lower refinery utilization drove market rebalancing. State-owned enterprise refiners may access low-cost inventories held by parent companies from the third quarter, subject to government approval. This should support an earnings recovery in the second half of 2026, benefiting Sinopec.

Macquarie's supply chain discussions suggest China may expand access to very large crude carrier capacity to strengthen crude import security. Over the medium term, this could limit speculative upside in VLCC freight rates, while incremental demand for tanker newbuilds could benefit equipment suppliers such as Neway and Jiuli.

The firm assigned a 60% probability that higher VLCC freight costs will ultimately be passed through to end users over time. Whether higher freight costs are incorporated into the National Development and Reform Commission-regulated gasoline and diesel pricing mechanism will be key for refining margins and tanker market dynamics.

Macquarie said concerns that China's energy storage system demand is nearing a peak are overdone. Nationwide expansion of spot-market trading and negative on-grid tariffs should widen peak-trough spreads and improve ESS economics. Liaoning's nuclear power tariff reform, which pressures tariffs from 2:00 a.m. to 5:00 a.m., illustrates this trend.

The firm said continued market reform and stricter dual-carbon controls should sustain ESS demand through the 15th Five-Year Plan. More negative generation tariffs could weigh on earnings for nuclear operators such as CGN and CNNP.

Macquarie said management changes are accelerating reforms across China's state-owned oil companies, with Sinopec chairman Hou Qijun's agenda helping the company navigate near-term market and policy volatility. The firm named Sinopec as its preferred state-owned enterprise reform exposure.