Citi says buy the dip in this media stock
Investing.com -- Citi named one well-known media firm its Top Pick in a note Friday, maintaining a $78 price target and arguing that the stock's recent decline is "overdone."
Fox is the stock in question, with the decline coming following its Roku acquisition.
Fox announced on June 15 that it had acquired Roku, with the transaction expected to close in the first half of 2027.
The deal terms include 60% cash at $96 per share and 40% stock at 0.969 FOXA shares per Roku share, representing a 33% premium alongside $400 million in expected cost savings.
Citi said most investors agreed Fox should have fallen only around 10%, yet shares dropped more than that.
The bank attributed the weakness to divergent interests between growth and value investors, uncertainty around synergies, and fundamental investors' reluctance to buy Fox ahead of the deal's close.
Furthermore, analysts at the bank expect approximately $1 billion in annual EBITDA from combined revenue and cost synergies, suggesting the deal "may be FCF accretive one year after closing" versus Fox's own guidance of two years.
On revenue synergies, Citi expects Fox's salesforce to improve Roku's fill rates, potentially adding around $325 million in annual EBITDA, while using Roku's platform to drive FOX One subscriptions could add another $160 million. In addition, it believes cost synergies may exceed the company's $400 million target.
Citi expects the deal to close as soon as the fourth quarter of 2026, ahead of Fox's outlook for the first half of 2027, with net leverage peaking at approximately 2.8x in fiscal 2027 before declining to 2.3x in fiscal 2028.
