Fed’s Schmid warns against assuming inflation is temporary
Investing.com -- Kansas City Federal Reserve President Jeff Schmid said Thursday that inflation remains widespread across goods and services and continues to be the central focus of monetary policy amid a stable labor market.
Speaking at an economics forum in Nebraska, Schmid described current inflation running at roughly twice the Fed's 2% target as "concerning." He pushed back against views that elevated prices stem from temporary factors like high oil costs and will naturally decline.
"I am uncomfortable ever assuming that a burst of inflation is likely to be temporary," Schmid said. "Inflation shocks are not intrinsically transitory."
Schmid, who does not vote on interest rate policy this year, did not explicitly call for a rate increase in his prepared remarks. He noted that while this week's inflation data came in lower than expected due to recent oil price declines, caution is warranted.
"It would be premature to put too much weight on a single data point relative to recent trends," Schmid said. "With the price of oil once again rising, it is uncertain how persistent any relief on energy will be."
The Federal Reserve's next policy meeting is scheduled for July 28-29. Some policymakers have indicated they may support a rate increase if inflation fails to ease in coming months. Market participants currently expect a rate hike in September.
New Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has not indicated his stance on policy, stating he prefers a more rigorous approach to forward guidance on interest rates.
Schmid defended the practice of Fed officials publicly discussing their views on the economy and monetary policy. He said transparency is essential for maintaining the central bank's accountability given its independence from elected officials.
"Independence demands accountability. And we can only be accountable if we are transparent on how we arrive at the decisions we make," Schmid said. "Transparency is necessary to avoid the perception that our decisions are politically influenced. If we don't explain our decisions, the public is left to speculate."
