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BP cuts Q2 2026 production outlook, net debt expected to fall

July 14, 2026 6:20 AM

BP p.l.c. (NYSE: BP) issued a second-quarter 2026 trading statement projecting upstream production of 2,170 to 2,220 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, down from 2,339 mboe/d in the first quarter, citing seasonal maintenance in the Gulf of America and disruptions in the Middle East.

Within that range, oil production and operations is expected at 1,420 to 1,450 mboe/d, compared with 1,541 mboe/d in Q1, while gas and low carbon energy is forecast at 750 to 770 mboe/d, down from 798 mboe/d.

Refining throughput is expected at 1,445 to 1,475 thousand barrels per day, below the first-quarter figure of 1,527 mb/d, reflecting planned turnaround activity and reduced output at the Whiting refinery following a third-party event in April.

Brent crude averaged $103.85 per barrel in the second quarter, up from $81.13 in Q1, while Henry Hub natural gas averaged $2.90 per mmBtu, down from $5.05.

Net debt at the end of Q2 is expected to be $22 to $23 billion, compared with $25.3 billion at the end of Q1. The reduction reflects a $2.9 billion payment to redeem €2.5 billion in perpetual hybrid bonds on June 22, 2026, and a $1.1 billion Gulf of America settlement payment. Remaining hybrid bonds are expected to be approximately $13 billion.

Exploration write-offs of approximately $500 million are anticipated, primarily related to the sale of Bay du Nord in Canada. Post-tax adjusting items including impairments of around $1.0 billion are also expected, largely tied to transition businesses in the gas and low carbon energy segment.

The group underlying effective tax rate for Q2 is projected between 33% and 37%. BP's full second-quarter 2026 results are scheduled for release on August 4, 2026.

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