Investing.com -- The International Energy Agency reduced its forecast for Russian oil production on Friday, projecting a 3% decline to 8.9 million barrels per day this year due to Ukrainian drone attacks on energy infrastructure.

The Paris-based agency lowered its Russian supply outlook by 85,000 barrels per day for this year and 150,000 bpd for next year, expecting output to average 8.8 million bpd over the forecast period.

Ukraine has increased drone strikes targeting Russian energy facilities, including oil refineries, storage facilities and transport infrastructure, aiming to disrupt Moscow's war operations.

The IEA now expects Russian oil output to reach 8.9 million bpd this year and 8.8 million bpd in 2027, down from 9.2 million bpd in 2025. Russia ranks as the world's third-largest oil producer.

The attacks prompted Russia to introduce a diesel export ban this week, adding to existing restrictions on gasoline and jet fuel sales abroad to address domestic fuel shortages.

Russia's crude production in June rose by 120,000 bpd from May to 8.86 million bpd, according to the IEA. This figure stands 900,000 bpd below the quota set by OPEC+, the group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies.

Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said last month that Russian oil production has dropped since the start of the year, attributing the decline to unplanned refinery maintenance.

Russia ceased publishing oil output data in April 2023, more than a year after the war in Ukraine began.

The IEA reported Russia's total crude oil exports in June at 5.8 million bpd, up 620,000 bpd from May. Oil products exports fell by 230,000 bpd from May to 1.91 million bpd last month.