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The next banking crisis may come from cyberattacks, not credit losses: JPMorgan

June 29, 2026 7:54 AM

Investing.com -- Cybersecurity risk in banks is "currently one of the biggest undiscounted risks not reflected in bank valuations," JPMorgan has warned, arguing that AI-enabled attacks could trigger a liquidity crisis more dangerous than a traditional credit event.

In a note by analyst Kian Abouhossein, JPMorgan said frontier AI models such as Mythos and GPT-5.5 "significantly reduce the timeline for discovering previously unknown zero-day vulnerabilities from months and years to hours," compressing the window banks have to patch exposed systems.

The bank argued that regulators and investors are focusing on the wrong risk metrics. "Looking at cybersecurity risk through the lens of the capital framework is not the best approach," Abouhossein wrote, calling instead for increased infrastructure resilience testing and deposit-run liquidity haircut stress tests.

JPMorgan said social media could trigger "unprecedented volatility in deposit flows" in a cyber-driven crisis, pointing to Credit Suisse as a precedent.

Abouhossein identified U.S. banks as better positioned than global peers, citing higher absolute technology spending and early access to frontier AI models.

European banks were flagged as more vulnerable, operating with lower technology budgets and facing delayed access to the latest developments. Tech costs averaged approximately 17% of global bank operating expenses in 2025.

The bank also suggested assigning a higher valuation multiple to banks with sticky, excess deposit bases, given their ability to navigate a crisis scenario, arguing that a premium for U.S. global systemically important banks over European and Japanese counterparts "could be justified due to lower cost of equity as the market factors in better cyber risk preparedness."

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