Investing.com -- Deutsche Bank has revised down its gold price outlook, citing Federal Reserve hawkishness and resilient U.S. economic data as the primary forces pushing the metal lower, while identifying a notable absence of traditional investment demand support.

Analyst Michael Hsueh has set a revised base case of $4,800 per ounce in the fourth quarter, "consistent with an indefinite Fed hold," while warning that a risk scenario pricing in three to four Fed hikes could drag gold to $3,800 per ounce.

Hsueh said the first FOMC meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh "revealed no resistance to market pricing for hikes," with the press conference underlining potential for a further hawkish shift, supported by a Taylor rule prescription running approximately 80 basis points above current levels.

The divergence between gold and oil prices last month was identified as the point at which the Fed repricing became the dominant driver.

Investment demand signals are broadly negative, according to the bank. ETF selling continued after the May nonfarm payrolls report, futures open interest sits at a 17-year low, and net long positioning is closer to year-to-date lows than highs.

Hsueh added that the China gold premium over Comex has flipped to a small discount, suggesting imports will not provide support, while India’s recent hike in gold import value-added tax is expected to suppress demand there.

Central bank buying is seen as the one supportive pillar, with Deutsche Bank expecting emerging market central banks to continue catching up to developed market peers in gold holdings.

However, Hsueh noted official demand has not accelerated as of the first quarter and "will not compensate for otherwise slower investment demand on its own."