Investing.com -- Accelerating electric vehicle adoption is adding a new layer of downside risk to global oil demand, according to Goldman Sachs, which estimates the recent surge in EV sales could reduce oil demand by up to 0.32 million barrels per day by December 2027.

Analyst Alexandra Paulus said global EV car sales penetration has risen 3.4 percentage points since February, reaching an all-time high of 26.1% last month, excluding a September 2025 spike driven by a U.S. tax credit expiry.

Of the 15 largest EV markets, 12 have experienced an increase in penetration, according to Goldman. China led the gains, with EV penetration rising 11.4 percentage points.

Goldman modeled two scenarios for the demand impact. Under a "Temporary Acceleration" scenario, in which regional EV penetration rates hold at May 2026 levels, global oil demand takes a hit of 0.13 million barrels per day by December 2027.

Under a "Persistent Acceleration" scenario, in which penetration trends continue, the demand loss reaches 0.32 million barrels per day.

Paulus noted that the analysis understates the full picture, as it only accounts for additions to the passenger car fleet and excludes two- and three-wheeler EVs, which account for 92% of total EV sales in India and 80% in Vietnam, as well as the roughly 55% of global oil demand unrelated to road fuels.

Goldman said the EV acceleration makes its downside oil price scenario more plausible, in which Brent falls to the mid-$50s per barrel in late 2027, though "potentially more persistent constraints on Hormuz flows pose significant upside price risks."