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Stifel downgrades Intuit to Hold on growth concerns, cuts target price

June 18, 2026 1:34 PM

Investing.com -- Stifel downgraded software company Intuit to "Hold" from "Buy" and slashed its price target to $275 from $375, citing expectations that the company will lower its long-term growth outlook for key businesses as it shifts toward more value-based pricing strategies.


The brokerage said it expects Intuit management to reduce growth targets for both TurboTax and its Global Business Solutions segment when it reports fourth-quarter results and hosts its analyst day in September. Stifel believes the company is moving away from years of aggressive price increases to address market-share losses and rising customer price sensitivity.



Stifel cut its fiscal 2027 revenue forecast for Intuit to $23.44 billion from $23.64 billion and lowered its fiscal 2027 earnings-per-share estimate to $26.94 from $27.34. The brokerage also introduced a fiscal 2028 EPS forecast of $29.38.


The firm expects TurboTax's long-term growth target to be reduced to 4%-6% from the current 6%-10% range, reflecting pressure in the do-it-yourself tax-filing business as lower-income customers become more price sensitive. Stifel said management's shift toward monetizing customers through ancillary services rather than tax-filing fees could create near-term revenue headwinds.


The brokerage also forecast that Intuit could lower its Global Business Solutions growth target to 10%-15% from 15%-20%, citing concerns about slowing momentum in QuickBooks, payroll services and Mailchimp. Stifel was particularly critical of Mailchimp's performance, arguing the business has significantly underperformed expectations and continues to lose market share to rivals.


Despite the downgrade, Stifel said it does not expect another sharp decline in the stock given Intuit's active share repurchase program and relatively low valuation multiples. However, it expects the shares to lag other large-cap software peers until revenue growth expectations improve.


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