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Wolfe Research discusses chip sector after company meetings

June 17, 2026 7:13 AM

Investing.com -- Wolfe Research shared findings from recent meetings with Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO), Monolithic Power Systems (NASDAQ: MPWR), and Tokyo Electron on Tuesday.

Broadcom management discussed the Apollo and Blackstone XPV financing vehicle following its earnings report. The first tranche of XPV funds will cover Anthropic's fiscal 2026 Broadcom purchases. Full funding would enable Anthropic and OpenAI XPU volume to triple in fiscal 2028 to 15 gigawatts, potentially driving 20 to 25 gigawatts of total Broadcom shipments. This could generate approximately $250 billion to $300 billion in fiscal 2028 XPU revenue, with content ranging from $10 billion to $15 billion per gigawatt.

Broadcom provided a backstop for the financing through residual value guarantees. Wolfe Research said the probability of Broadcom absorbing liability appears low but noted the risk exists. The stock's response to earnings reflected Broadcom not raising fiscal 2027 guidance, which some investors viewed as lacking confidence.

Monolithic Power Systems indicated the pricing environment has improved, though the company appears less aggressive than peers on price increases. The company maintained its enterprise data outlook of 85% year-over-year growth as a floor, with visibility improving and content growth opportunities in calendar 2027 and beyond. The company acknowledged Texas Instruments as a new entrant for AI power but suggested Texas Instruments may simply replace Renesas as a third qualified Nvidia supplier.

Tokyo Electron sees limited upside opportunity for calendar 2026 wafer fab equipment due to customer clean room constraints. For calendar 2027, Tokyo Electron projects a floor of $170 billion in wafer fab equipment spending, with upside depending on Intel and TeraFab expenditures. The company views estimates of $200 billion for calendar 2027 as too aggressive due to clean room limitations.

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