Bernstein weighs in on potential Qualcomm-Tenstorrent deal
Bernstein maintained its Market-Perform rating on Qualcomm following the report, making no changes to its financial model. Rasgon wrote: "We make no changes to our model at this time, and await any further newsflow that might be forthcoming into the company's analyst day in a couple of weeks. We rate Qualcomm Market-Perform."
Tenstorrent designs high-performance AI and machine learning processors built on the open-source RISC-V architecture, with a product lineup spanning PCIe cards and developer workstations to enterprise-grade clusters, plus RISC-V-based IP and AI hardware SDKs. The rumored price tag represents a steep premium to the startup's last publicly speculated valuation of approximately $3.2 billion at the end of last year. Bernstein noted that Tenstorrent had already surfaced in press reports as a potential takeover target for both Intel and Qualcomm back in May, predating The Information's report.
The strategic rationale, as Bernstein frames it, is reasonably clear. "There has been a run on AI startups focusing on low-latency inference lately, hence we can certainly see how Tenstorrent might fit into Qualcomm's portfolio, adding to current offerings that include CPUs, ASICs, server racks, and IP (Alphawave serdes etc)," Rasgon wrote. Qualcomm has been building out its RISC-V exposure for some time, having acquired Ventana, a RISC-V compute player, in late 2025. A Tenstorrent deal would push that strategy considerably further.
Bernstein also sees the deal as a potential hedge against Qualcomm's dependence on Arm architecture. The relationship between the two companies has grown strained in recent years, culminating in a lawsuit over Qualcomm's prior Nuvia acquisition, which Qualcomm won decisively in late 2024. As Rasgon put it, "if nothing else, a Tenstorrent deal would at a minimum enhance Qualcomm's exploration of alternative compute architectures."
The person drawing the most attention in any potential transaction is Tenstorrent's CEO Jim Keller, an industry legend credited with driving AMD's Zen architecture and Apple's A-series iPhone chips, who joined Tenstorrent in late 2020 and early 2021 after departing Intel. Bernstein is candid about the risk: "while obtaining Jim Keller on the payroll would be a coup for any company, we would not plan on him staying for long as his typical behavior is to leave public companies behind in fairly short order once arriving."
That concern is amplified by Qualcomm's own history with silicon acquisitions. Bernstein points to the Nuvia deal as a cautionary example: while the acquisition did ultimately enhance Qualcomm's processor capabilities, virtually the entire Nuvia team departed once their lock-up periods expired. Whether a similar outcome would hollow out a Tenstorrent acquisition is, by Bernstein's reckoning, a legitimate question mark.
On price, Rasgon was measured but skeptical. "$10B may be somewhat expensive for a startup asset (though we suppose it's cheaper than Groq was...) And of course one has to wonder what the deal might mean for the company's existing portfolio (i.e would this be additive, or a hedge?)" That question of whether Tenstorrent would complement or cannibalize Qualcomm's existing AI compute efforts remains unanswered in the current reporting.
Neither Qualcomm nor Tenstorrent has publicly commented on the reported discussions. With Qualcomm's analyst day coming soon, it could be the next meaningful forum for management to address the company's M&A posture and strategic direction in AI compute. Until then, Bernstein is watching the newsflow rather than updating its outlook, leaving QCOM holders with a hold-equivalent rating as the deal speculation circulates.
